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The First Annual UAFC Stats Review
29th May 2010 Introduction: The old axiom says that there are lies, damn lies and statistics. As any serious statistician worth his or her metal will tell you, this is a load of old bollocks. Statistics don’t lie. More specifically, rugby statistics don’t lie. Or at least, it’s too bloody hard to make them lie for it to be a worthwhile venture. The raw data is reported in many independent media outlets and tends to be witnessed by 10,000 or more fairly independent observers. The stato can, of course, manipulate the analysis and the data that he or she chooses to reveal but any omissions and misrepresentations can easily be revealed. All of the information in this review is available in the public arena and is not obfuscated by confusing methods. With this caveat, The Archipelago would like to introduce the first Annual UAFC Statistical Review of Ulster Rugby. The aim of this review is to establish, through on-field data, whether or not Ulster Rugby is on the road to improvement, the pathway to deterioration, or the cesspool of stagnation. Data is drawn from the 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2009-10 seasons. For comparative purposes, it is disaggregated into Magners League and Heineken Cup sections, as well as presented in total. Section 1: Wins, Losses and Draws:
Whether or not Ulster have improved in the Magners League is difficult to immediately ascertain from this data. These points totals correspond to finishes in the league of 8th in the last two seasons and 9th in 2007-2008. No more points, and only a draw to show for an extra season’s experience isn’t exactly impressive, but the Magners League is more dynamic than the more settled leagues of England in France. Last season, nine points separated 4th and 8th; in 2008-2009 and 2007-2008, this gap was sixteen and fourteen points, respectively. In this time, the Magners League has become more and more congested; in 2007-2008, an extra 10 points would raise Ulster to sixth in the league; in 2008-2009, those 10 points would put Ulster in fifth and this season, would have seen Ulster leap into the playoffs. Season on season, the Magners League is becoming more competitive – the presence of the hitherto unfancied Glasgow Warriors in this season’s playoffs is testament that the strength of the teams Ulster is competing against. Ulster gives the appearance of having stagnated in a league that is improving, which is, in a way, an improvement in itself and one that is reflected in Heineken Cup performances, against opposition whose quality over recent seasons has been relatively more stable. Last season, Ulster claimed six losing bonus points in the Magners League, compared with only two this season; the team lost many games narrowly but won few by large margins; this stands in glaring contrast to four try bonus points in seven wins this season. This change is not surprising; in 2008-2009, Ulster’s game was based, primarily on defence; this season, attack has come more to the fore. Section Two: Tries and Points Scored and Conceded:
It is very easy to treat 2007-2008 as an embarrassing outlier in this analysis but that would ignore the significant improvements brought to Ulster’s defence by Peter Sharp. For a defence to concede over one hundred fewer points in the space of a season is an impressive realignment. A cursory glance at this season suggests a further improvement; more tries scored, more points scored, fewer points conceded and fewer tries conceded; the worrying trend is, however, that Ulster’s defence in the Magners League deteriorated significantly, although points scored increased so significantly as to counter-balance this loss. Indeed, Ulster’s total of 39 tries was the highest total for any side in the league, while the 35 conceded was worse than all but three rivals. Overall, Ulster ranked sixth both in terms of points scored and points conceded; last season, Ulster’s defence was again ranked sixth but ninth in attack. Where this data becomes interesting is in looking at Ulster’s consistency throughout the season; last season, Ulster conceded almost 36% of points and 49% of tries in the three worst defensive performances of the Magners League season, compared with 26% of points and 29% of tries this season. These percentages are strongly significant and they show a defence that will concede more points, per game, on a consistent basis. In 2008-2009, the defence was good with a few blips; in 2009-2010, the defence has been more consistently poor. Given the loss of specialist defensive coaching, this is hardly surprising. In attack, inconsistency is still a problem. In 2008-2009, Ulster scored 38% of points and 50% of tries in the three best attacking performances. In 2009-2010, these values were 35% for points and 42% for tries. There are slight improvements here but it paints a worrying picture. On average, Ulster were better in attack this season than they have been but are still inconsistent, at best. It is in this data that the reasons for Ulster’s apparent stagnation in the league become apparent. The team has been inconsistent in attack for too long; with a defence that has been consistently leaky, at best, throughout this campaign and an attack that has glittered too irregularly, Ulster have, at times, flattered to deceive, and at times, looked a much weaker outfit than they, in fact, are. Section 3: Conclusion: The consistency, and potency, of Ulster’s attack have obviously improved this season but it still some way off being a sterner and reliable force. Coupled with a defence that has, consistently, shipped in excess of twenty points per game, it is obvious why they have failed to win on a regular basis in this Magners League campaign. While the inconsistencies of 2008-2009 were frustrating, Ulster based a game on a defence that was reliable most of the time; the failure to score points damaged Ulster and was the reason for so many bonus point defeats. The deterioration of the defence this season has seen Ulster losing more games by larger margins, while the improvement in attack has seen Ulster play some scintillating rugby and seen them tear opposition teams apart when it has all clicked. The trouble is that, all too often, it hasn’t clicked. In the coming season, points conceded needs, once more, to be reduced; Ulster have lost too many games in which they scored over 20 points but until Ulster can consistently perform in attack, it is unreasonable to expect Ulster to challenge for the Magners League playoffs. It was obvious at the end of last season that the attack needed to improve; in ways, it has but it is still far too inconsistent and this improvement has come at the expense of more consistently weak defensive performances. In that respect, while the statistics show some improvement, one must question just how strong this ‘improvement’ is, in real terms. Perhaps the most alarming disparity in data this season is between Heineken Cup performances and Magners League performances. Ulster won 67% of Heineken Cup matches, as opposed to 39% of Mangers League matches. In ways, this should not be surprising, however – it isn’t in the statistics here that the truth is revealed but in the worries I wrote of at the start of the season; simply that Ulster didn’t have enough players to be competitive throughout an entire season. Given the way international windows fall, and the season is structured, it is easier for Ulster to field strong, settled XV’s in the Heineken Cup. The first XV at Ulster is a talented group and these Heineken Cup performances reflect that. Over a whole season, however, that talented XV is simply not enough and, beyond that, Ulster showed an appalling lack of strength in depth. It is a sad state of affairs but until Ulster can build a larger playing squad of sufficient quality, improvements in the Magners League may simply not materialise, and we should look to the Heineken Cup as the arena in which an Ulster XV, bolstered by three big-name South Africans, can show exactly what they are made of. The Archipelago.
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