There is something beautiful, and almost haunting in the unerring and often baseless optimism of the Ulster Rugby fan; one fine win against Guinness Premiership opposition and suddenly, half of the province is imagining descending on Paris in May as it did on Dublin back in January 1999. In thought bubbles, Ian Humphreys - no doubt rocking a full-on Tolstoy by this stage – is replicating his brother’s famous speech outside City Hall and, just maybe, someone will imagine Gerry Adams, sitting amongst the Ulster faithful in this new era of peace, and waving a yella fleg.

Such is the ferment that has surrounded the performance against Bath that Jim Neilly found himself writing a column on the BBC entitled, “Are Ulster Genuine Cup Contenders?” The answer remains a firm no; at least, not for another week. As Gusher himself said, “let’s not lose the run of ourselves just yet.”

Had the almighty Führmain been on the ball last Friday, you would have seen The Archipelago state that he expected an Ulster victory against Bath. You wouldn’t have seen him predict a victory; for once, confidence in Ulster was so high that I felt confident in saying that Ulster WOULD win, not that they could or should…

Okay, so such an expectation wasn’t as far out there as it would have been, had I predicted that Ian Humphreys would score 38 points in a bonus victory but still, the fact that it was expectation, on the eve of the Heineken Cup, said a lot. In the previous two games at Ravenhill this season, Ulster had conceded only three tries, two of which were scored when the game was effectively already over; Ulster had also outscored the opposition, in try terms, on both occasions and, more importantly, were coming into this match off the back of two fantastic performances. Bath came into this game laying eighth in the Guinness Premiership, with one win and a draw to rub together and having not really impressed in their opening exchanges.

The most pleasing thing about last Friday’s performance was not that it was, in the end, a comfortable victory against Guinness Premiership opposition however; it was that it is the first time in immediate memory that, on the opening night of this tournament, Ulster put in the type of performance that the team could sustain throughout the group stages. This was not a one-off performance; it is a real starting point, a place from which Ulster can build – this, unlike the first-half demolition of Toulouse when Ulster last won their first group game, gives a serious platform from which momentum can be built because it’s a performance that the team can replicate.

Last week, I would have stated that the trip to Murrayfield on Saturday would be the defining point of Ulster’s Heineken Cup season. This is only heightened by the result against Bath. For the record, it will also be The Archipelago’s first chance to see Ulster in the flesh this season – say hi; I’ll be, presumably, the only Ulsterman with a German Uncle Fester-alike in tow.

The expected victory against Bath now only reinforces the importance of this game. It is a game that Ulster know they can win and a game that Ulster also know they can lose. It’s been three years and eight months since Ulster last won in Edinburgh but they are always tight affairs; two of the three games since then have yielded losing bonus points for the Ulstermen.

For this reason, Ulster v Edinburgh games are a favourite topic of mine. They are always tense and they are always bloody interesting, even if the quality of rugby on display fails to live up to expected standards. Edinburgh’s trip to Ravenhill earlier this season, again, ended in a losing bonus point; this continues a theme – there have only been two occasions, since 2005, that these two teams have met and a losing bonus point has not resulted. In this time, there has never been a winning bonus point. There is no reason to believe that events at Murrayfield next Saturday will unfold any differently.

In a way, Edinburgh are exactly the team to test, precisely, where Ulster are, right now – it is these tight games that this inexperienced squad needs to learn how to close out and which, thus far, they have almost entirely failed to do. Even the win against Glasgow at Firhill last season came down to a missed penalty in the last minute; it was more through good fortune than performance that Ulster escaped with the points that evening. The optimist in me looks to the result at the Liberty Stadium for hope…

It has been long-accepted that Ulster can beat big teams at Ravenhill; in this respect, the victory against Bath means little if Ulster don’t take something from Murrayfield. The list of teams that have faltered in Belfast in recent years reads like a who’s who of European Rugby. Where Ulster really need to improve is in away games. Beating Stade Français, even in Brussels, may not be a realistic goal but Edinburgh at Murrayfield and Bath at the Rec offer better chances for an Ulster team that looks better directed and in better shape than at any stage since Justin Harrison lifted the Magners League.

If, and it’s a big if, Ulster can take the points from Murrayfield then they could well ride into the December double-header against Stade on the crest of a wave and with a realistic belief that they can get out of the group; especially with the first of the encounters in Belfast, three wins from three to start with isn’t beyond the realms of impossibility. For Ulster’s Heineken Cup campaign not to be over by the third game of the group stages would be territory that the team, and the fans, have not experienced for some time. For it still to be on track after that third game is almost uncharted territory.

It’s early days, of course. Three good performances in a row a good season or a good team does not make. It would be folly for The Archipelago to claim Ulster will, or should, or even can make it to the group stages – it would be premature for sure; at the same time, Ulster head to Auld Reekie on the back of some excellent performances– but for a few missed kicks, Ulster could be atop the heap in the Magners, although to be in second place, given the opening series of fixtures, is no mean feat. If the team can carry that momentum through this weekend, then there is no reason why we can’t, at least, begin to believe that the promised land of group stages rugby will be in sight, although I, for one, won’t be booking myself onto the Ryanair to Beauvais just yet.