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Are Ulster Improving?
Saturday’s victory at Ravenhill took Ulster onto 26 points in this Magners League campaign. That is, for those interested, only three points fewer than Ulster managed in the whole of last season and six more than they had after 12 games in that campaign. For those that want to see them, the signs of improvement are there but it is only a small improvement in real terms; Ulster have won five games in 12 in the Magners League so far this season, at the same time last season, they’d managed to win four times and draw once. It is a sad fact that half of the extra points gained by Ulster so far this season have come from losing bonus points – four so far this season compared to one last year. Losing by fewer points is an improvement but it’s a scant one.
Of course, statistics never tell the true story. You’d be hard pressed to find an Ulster fan that hasn’t seen the improvements on the pitch this season. After 12 games last season, Ulster had conceded 259 points and scored 176. This season, the points conceded are down to 198 and points scored are up to 219. On average, Ulster have conceded five fewer points per game and scored four more. It’s clearly not enough of a turnaround to turn Ulster into a team that consistently wins but it’s a step in the right direction at least.
Over the course of the 2007/2008 season, Ulster won at Ravenhill, on average, by 20.3-16.6. This season, on average, Ulster win 19.4-12.0. So, why did Ulster win less than half of the time at Ravenhill last season? And why have Ulster only one four out of seven games in Belfast this season? The trouble, across both seasons, is that Ulster just aren’t consistent enough in attack; over 20% of the points Ulster scored at Ravenhill last season came in one game. So far this season, Ulster have scored 136 points at Ravenhill, almost 40% of which were scored in one game.
Away from home, Ulster lose on average 23.4 – 16.6 this season, compared to losing 28.7 – 10.6 last season. Here, too, Ulster have actually improved considerably in both attack and defence. While the team are still losing, on average, away from home, the average gap has been cut from 18.4 points to 6.8 points. It is here that Ulster have been picking up losing bonus points? Two of the four losing bonus points coming from away games may suggest so. The trouble, again, is that in 2007/8, 32% of points scored away from home came in one game; this season, 45% of points have been scored in one game. While Ulster’s defence failed dramatically away from home last season, it has converged to a long-run Magners League average this season, suggesting that the problems Ulster have winning away from home are rooted in the consistency and ability of the attack, not in defensive failings. In all sport, it is expected that an representative team would concede more points on the road than at home.
More worryingly, 40% of Ulster points scored this season, home and away, have come in the games against Connacht and Munster. Indeed, 50% of Ulster’s tries in the league have also come in these two games. Treating these two games as outliers, Ulster actually score, on average, 1.4 tries per game and 1.3 penalties per game. Of the 16 penalties Ulster have scored this season, 5 were kicked away to Edinburgh. With similar treatment to the Connacht and Munster tries, we reduce Ulster to a maximum of 12 points scored based on an average performance this season. Ulster have landed 18 out of 24 conversions, so in reality, the score of an average Ulster performance is less than 12 points.
Absolute average so far this season is an 18.3 – 16.5 win for Ulster. Despite this, Ulster have only won 5 times and lost 7 times. Why? The statistical answer is obvious; Ulster are winning games by larger margins than they are losing them by. This is, of course, true but why are Ulster winning games by larger margins? Again, to me, it comes back to the inconsistency of the attack.
To compare this more logically, on average, Ulster have scored 22 points in the history of the Magners / Celtic League and conceded 18. This, of course, must be weighted against the poor quality of the Welsh nations in the early stages of the competition. In truth, Ulster have nearly always been a mid-table side in the Magners League, with the only two major outliers being 2005/6 and 2007/8. So, what I am saying is that this Ulster team is actually running fairly close to the long-run league averages of Ulster in the professional era. Attack isn’t quite so good and defence is a little bit better.
The major problem, therefore, isn’t defence. Traditionally, Ulster have had a very thrifty defence in the Magners League. Since the league converted to its current format in 2003/2004, Ulster’s defence has been ranked; 1st, 4th, 1st, 2nd, 10th and is currently ranked 4th. Indeed, had it not been for the debacle against the Ospreys at the Liberty Stadium, it could be argued that Ulster would have the best defence in the league this season.
Currently, only the top three sides have a better defence. Of course, this is mediated by the fact that only the bottom three sides have a worse attacking record. Indeed, at best, attack throughout the history of the league has been a weakness for Ulster, at least in its consistency. Again, since the league converted in 2003/2004, Ulster’s attack has been ranked; 1st, 7th, 2nd, 6th, 9th and is currently 7th. There have been good attacking seasons for Ulster but in four out of six seasons, including this one, Ulster’s attack has been ranked in the bottom half of the league.
In attack, it’s clear that Ulster have two separate and equally worrying problems; one is simply not scoring enough points, on average, to win games, especially away from home. The second is not being able to consistently put points on the board to win on a regular basis, both home and away.
I'm not in the habit of peddling easy answers but I think what Ulster need, more than anything else, is the maturity to hold onto the ball in or around the opponents' 22 until a gap does open up, rather than trying to fashion one out of nothing. Continuity needs to improve, as does the ability to maintain a threat when the first phase has broken down and the opposition defence has rearranged. When / if Ulster learn to do that, I think the team will become much more dangerous; not only in attack but also in terms of making Ulster a very hard team to beat. Ulster can get into good positions from the first phase without getting to the try line. If the can also learn to get from the first or second breakdown to the try line, then they will become an infinitely more dangerous force than they currently are.
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