The weight of expectation!

There is something inherently alarming about being defeated at home by the Newport-Gwent Dragons. We are, after all, dealing with a team that went down by a half-century in Cork last week and who had conceded, on average, 30 points per game before their visit to Ravenhill. We are dealing with a team that hadn’t won in Ireland in their 16 previous attempts and who haven’t returned to Wales with even a losing bonus point in their last five trips across the Irish Sea.

At full time on Friday night, a chorus of boos rang out across Ravenhill. Some maintain that they were directed at the abysmal refereeing performance of Andy McPherson but it will have fallen on the ears of players who, at least now, seem to know where the problems lie. It’s never pleasant to hear discontent expressed in such a fashion, even if it is merited by the performance. The trouble is that the boos that rang out on Friday evening showed something much more worrying – that a certain number of fans had been expected an immediate turn around in Ulster’s fortunes. Rugby, rarely, is as simple as that.

It’s hard for anyone to suggest that three bonus point defeats from our opening three games is a good enough return, especially when it sees Ulster, once more, firmly rooted to the bottom of the table. It’s not a pretty sight but there is an important difference between things not being good enough and things getting worse. In the third week of last season, Ulster made the reverse trip to Rodney Parade and ended up on the wrong end of a 31 – 11 scoreline. The Dragons dominated both possession and territory in that game, were all over Ulster’s setpiece and were unlucky not to come away with a four-try bonus point such was Ulster’s defence that night. Is a two point home defeat, rooted in ill-discipline and coming off the back of strong possession and territory and a dominant setpiece really worse than the debacle that we witnessed at Rodney Parade at the same stage last season?

Things were so bad at the start of last season that it was almost impossible to define what exactly was wrong. The setpiece was an embarrassment, the defence was ragged, Ulster couldn’t get a hold of the ball and found maintaining any kind of meaningful possession almost impossible. They were continually destroyed and out-competed at the breakdown, discipline was atrocious and on the very rare forays into the 22, they never looked likely to leave with anything. Ultimately, it was a team without direction or purpose and Matt Williams was left with an unenviable task when he took over the reins.

Williams had to start somewhere and he started on the scrum. Bringing Reggie Corrigan in on a consultancy basis had an almost immediate impact but the arrival of BJ Botha has turned the Ulster scrum into a positive weapon that has seen it used more than once and, against Cardiff, successfully as a penalty option. The lineout, too, has started improving this season. Not only do Ulster look secure on their own ball but they are starting to spoil the opposition throw and have, once more, begun to use the lineout as an offensive weapon.

Defence has noticeably improved – Ulster had conceded 71 points in the opening three games of last season, compared with only 48 this season. Those 23 points translate into almost eight points per game but it’s not just in points conceded that the defence has improved – by this stage last season, Ulster had conceded six tries, compared with only three this season. As it stands, Ulster’s record of one try conceded per game is bettered only by Leinster and Munster, while on average, Ulster currently have the 5th best defence in the league. Sadly, it seems that the much-vaunted dictum about strong defence being the key to victory does not yet apply in Belfast but the improvement here is still significant.

The trouble is that Williams is still stepping his way through the myriad problems that beset Ulster Rugby in the 2007/2008 season one by one and it will take time before Ulster can be any kind of potent force in the Magners League. Discipline has again been poor this season, although it too has, in its way, improved. Ulster already had a red card and two yellow cards in the bank after three games last season but have maintained the full quota at all times this season.

We can have faith that, in time, the ill-discipline that has seen Ulster cough up 27 points in three games will improve - the drastic improvements in other areas of the park stand as testament to this. Ulster have lost by no more than seven points at any stage this season and Williams will be all too aware that discipline is the largest single reason why Ulster are sitting at the foot of the table with three points rather than in fifth place with nine and must first move to set that right.

Attack remains the area of deepest concern – only Connacht have put fewer points on the board than Ulster this season. Ulster, it seems, are found lacking in the basic skills that allow teams like Munster to play well from long phases of possession but also lack the creativity in midfield to outflank opponents. It’s a sad fact that until Ian Humphrey’s moment of brilliance, Ulster haven’t looked much like scoring off any play that didn’t come from a setpiece. With Paddy Wallace still injured, Ulster may lack real options to make meaningful change in this area but there must now be a temptation to start with Ian Humphreys or to play Trimble inside Cave.

With O’Connor playing the percentages well, a trip to Liberty Stadium may not be the ideal time to give Ian Humphreys his first competitive start in an Ulster jersey but should again be employed from the bench with 25 remaining on the clock. Rob Dewey can feel lucky that he started on Friday – had it not been for injuries to Simon Danielli and Paddy Wallace, he may have found himself out of the 22 altogether. It was another poor performance from the hulking Scot, however and even with the limitations of an injury-hit backline, may have to content himself with a spot on the bench.

The forwards again fronted up well and it’s hard to see or justify any changes to those units. Del Fava’s return to fitness could see the Italian return to the starting XV but with O’Donoghue again dominating at the front of the lineout and Caldwell having one of his best all round games for Ulster, there seems little need to destabilise the ship, at least until Stephen Ferris and David Pollock return to fitness.

The Archipelago’s Picks

15. Bryn Cunningham
14. Clinton Schifcofske
13. Darren Cave
12. Andrew Trimble
11. Timoci Nagusa
10. Niall O’Connor
9. Isaac Boss

1. Tom Court
2. Rory Best
3. BJ Botha
4. Ed O’Donoghue
5. Ryan Caldwell
6. Matt McCullough
7. Kieron Dawson
8. Robbie Diack

16. Nigel Brady
17. Justin Fitzpatrick
18. Carlo Del Fava
19. Thomas Anderson
20. Cillian Willis
21. Ian Humphreys
22. Rob Dewey

The Archipelago