HEC Group 2012/13

[mikerob]

[tag=image]http://static.guim.co.uk/sys-images/Spo ... n--008.jpg[/tag][tag=content]HEC groups have been decided by a number of ways over the years. The first way was for a bunch of blazers to meet behind closed doors and decide the groups between themselves, presumably with lots of horse trading.

Then a seeding system was introduced consisting of the first ranked team from each country who could not be drawn against each other.

Since the 08/09 HEC, there has been a full seeding system based upon ERC rankings. The rankings are based upon results in the last 4 years of ERC competitions.

22 teams qualify for the HEC based upon results in domestic leagues; 6 English, 6 French, 3 Irish and 3 Welsh. 2 Scottish and 2 Italian teams are guaranteed qualification.

2 more teams qualify depending upon the winner of the HEC and ACC with the winners of those competitions gaining another place for their country. As Leinster won the HEC, Connacht qualify for the HEC and as Biarritz won the ACC, Biarritz qualifies for the HEC as they did not qualify through their domestic league.

HEC pools have yet to be published by the ERC but they should look like this.

Tier 1
Leinster 40
Toulouse 27
Munster 23
Biarritz 23
Cardiff 20
Northampton 20

Tier 2
Clermont 18
Ulster 17
Leicester 17
Harlequins 15
Toulon 15
Edinburgh 12

Tier 3
Ospreys 12
Scarlets 9
Glasgow 9
Saracens 8
Connacht 6
Sale 5

Tier 4
Treviso 4
Castres 4
Racing-Métro 92 3
Montpellier 3
Aironi 2
Exeter 2

Teams from the same country are kept apart, so every group will have an English team and a French team, and one group will have two French teams.

The draw is done by country within tiers and in previous years the ERC has done this based upon the number of teams the country has in the competition, which would mean the order is:
2 x French 2, 2 x English 2, Ulster, Edinburgh, 2 x English 3, Connacht, 2 x Welsh 3, Glasgow, 2 x French 4, Exeter, 2 x Italian 4, 1 x French 4

Possible groups for Ulster are:

Cardiff
Ulster
Sale / Saracens
Castres / Racing / Montpellier

Northampton
Ulster
Glasgow / Scarlets / Ospreys
Castres / Racing / Montpellier

Toulouse / Biarritz
Ulster
Sale / Saracens
Castres / Racing / Montpellier / Treviso / Aironi

Toulouse / Biarritz
Ulster
Glasgow / Scarlets / Ospreys
Exeter

It is possible to calculate the probability of getting particular draws and teams.

Based on this, the probability of each of Ulster's pools is:

31.9% : Toulouse / Biarritz; Ulster; Sale / Saracens; Castres / Racing / Montpellier / Treviso / Aironi
30.6% : Northampton; Ulster; Glasgow / Scarlets / Ospreys; Castres / Racing / Montpellier
23.6% : Toulouse / Biarritz; Ulster; Glasgow / Scarlets / Ospreys; Exeter
13.9% : Cardiff; Ulster; Sale / Saracens; Castres / Racing / Montpellier

The probability of Ulster getting individual teams is:

30.6% : Northampton
27.8% : Biarritz
27.8% : Toulouse
13.8% : Cardiff

22.9% : Sale
22.9% : Saracens
20.1% : Ospreys
20.1% : Scarlets
14.0% : Glasgow

23.6% : Exeter
18.4% : Racing Metro
18.4% : Montpelier
18.4% : Castres
10.6% : Aironi
10.6% : Treviso

The HEC draw is usually in the first week of June.

- Ulster will be about twice as likely to get one of Toulouse, Biarritz or Northampton than Cardiff
- Ulster will be about twice as likely to get one of Racing, Montpelier, Castres or Exeter than Aironi or Treviso

This season Ulster had about 70% chance of getting an Italian side, next season it is about 20%.

Don't book your trips to Cardiff and Italy![/tag]

[BR]

OF course - you haven't taken into account ERC's normal shift of the goal posts