Who will win the 2014 6N?

[Neil F]

Scranner, whilst I see the point you make, the thing I've been impressed with by Schmidt through this tournament so far is that the age of players seems irrelevant - he actually seems to have selected who he perceives to be the best. I don't always agree with this approach (e.g. Boss may be, slightly, better than Marmion at the minute but Marmion is a decade younger and I'd be inclined to pick Marmion because he offers more long term; Schmidt's approach seems to be about getting the best available 23 players onto the park) but it's an incredibly fair policy. It means the youngsters who get selected do so on merit; personally, I don't think Marshall did enough against Scotland to show he's significantly better than D'Arcy, although I am aware that was not the point you made.

D'Arcy's provincial form this season has, from what I've seen, been much better than in recent times but it's on the international field where he has surprised me. His provincial form never really dropped the way his international form did. At the moment, I think it's hard to argue that D'Arcy is the incumbent. This lays down a big marker to the likes of Marshall, though - it says they have to up their game to get into the squad, rather than just assuming the shirt through the passes of time. This is good for the player and it's good for Ireland.

All of that said, I'd maybe guess that there could be room for all three of D'Arcy, Marshall and Olding, by the way. Sexton and Jackson are pretty much nailed on as the 10s and D'Arcy and one of Marshall or Olding will be going as the 12s. This still leaves a utility option. Olding could go as a 10/12/15, as could Madigan, if we're thinking along these lines. If D'Arcy is still in the game at that stage, I'd be very surprised if he didn't make it to the World Cup.

[Shan]

Neil Óg,

Once BOD is finished(though there seems to be a rumour circulating that he is going to give it one more year- I hope not for his and Ireland's sake) I wonder if it is possible Darcy would move to 13. Granted it appears likely Luke Fitz will end up there for Leinster, or will he.

I wonder would Joe think about Marshall-Darcy in the centre. I think in the short term it may be attractive to him until you build up Marshall's experience and then perhaps throw in another guy at 13 post RWC. With McFadden, Fitz or even Earls acting as cover on the bench you are covered from 11-14.

Could Olding end up at 13? I know everyone is expecting Payne to go there but then again how could Ulster leave out Cave? That argument of course holds firm on Olding at 13 too. It means there's an issue though as two Ireland probables(Marshall and Olding would be fighting for the same fecking jersey at UIster) We'll take one of them off yer hands if ya like though.

Of course it is not too late for Cave to show Joe he is a viable option also, though not if he gets sidelined by Ulster in the major games. To me Payne is a full back, Cave is a centre. But you guys will have seen them more.

[Russ]

Cave will play at 13 versus Italy

I fully expect to see Jackson Marshall Cave Trimble and Gilroy in that Irish backline

sent from my crozier

[Neil F]

Neil Óg,

Once BOD is finished(though there seems to be a rumour circulating that he is going to give it one more year- I hope not for his and Ireland's sake) I wonder if it is possible Darcy would move to 13. Granted it appears likely Luke Fitz will end up there for Leinster, or will he.

I wonder would Joe think about Marshall-Darcy in the centre. I think in the short term it may be attractive to him until you build up Marshall's experience and then perhaps throw in another guy at 13 post RWC. With McFadden, Fitz or even Earls acting as cover on the bench you are covered from 11-14.

Could Olding end up at 13? I know everyone is expecting Payne to go there but then again how could Ulster leave out Cave? That argument of course holds firm on Olding at 13 too. It means there's an issue though as two Ireland probables(Marshall and Olding would be fighting for the same fecking jersey at UIster) We'll take one of them off yer hands if ya like though.

Of course it is not too late for Cave to show Joe he is a viable option also, though not if he gets sidelined by Ulster in the major games. To me Payne is a full back, Cave is a centre. But you guys will have seen them more.

Shan, I think my (oft ridiculed) belief is that Ulster's long-term centre pairing is Marshall and Olding together; much in the same way D'Arcy and O'Driscoll would pop up at 12 or 13 and mix it up. No idea (or concern) which player would wear 12 and which 13 in that set up, mind. I am convinced that Olding is pretty much a legend in the making; in a way, watching him and the way he attacks space is like watching guys like Gibson in the days of yore, except that Olding is doing this in the much smaller gaps of the professional game. Olding will be a long-term Irish option. Marshall, I'm less sure about - he has the makings of a very good player but there are other guys around Ireland, including JJ Hanrahan, who may have a bit more to them. Of course, a lot of this pre-supposes which positions these guys settle into and now isn't really the time for that.

Shorter-term; I am entirely with you that I would be very sad to see O'Driscoll give it one more year. Minus the vast experience O'Driscoll has, I am not convinced he's the best 13 in Ireland at the moment. Not that I believe, for a second, that he is selected on sentiment. His leadership capacity and experience, rightly, count for a lot. I can see the desirability of D'Arcy shifting to 13, with Marshall coming in at 12. That said, this is another scarily short-term approach. I fear Ireland's approach, here, to be honest and I think it's the one thing Schmidt hasn't done well and the one opinion I had in the Autumn that Ireland's performances and Schmidt's selections haven't changed. I think I've said before that it feels a bit like head-in-sand stuff; much like Ulster's plan for when David Humphreys retired, it seems more hope than anything else. It's taken Ulster five or six years to find a player worthy of replacing Humphreys.

In a way, D'Arcy shifting out allows A.N. Other to slowly segue into the shirt but I am not, personally, convinced about the thought of D'Arcy at 13, especially at this age. He was always mooted as a better 13 than 12 shoehorned into 12 because of O'Driscoll but I'm not convinced about this. D'Arcy's early games for Leinster (and presumably his age-grade rugby, although I'm open to correction) were on the wing and then he moved into 12 and I think, from this, he's never really developed the necessary distribution game to really make a go of it at 13. That said, given their lack of exposure, it's no less viable than the other options of the likes of Henshaw or Cave coming in and immediately doing a job. I don't think it's necessarily much more desirable, either, though and more would be gained in the long-term by bringing someone new in straight away.

Personally speaking, although I am presumably a little biased, Cave is the answer for me, at least short-term. I can't ever see Cave being anything other than a passable international player (as much as I'd like to be proved wrong) but I think he is best-placed to plug the gap left by O'Driscoll, particularly in defence. I think Cave and D'Arcy / Marshall will probably be the centre pairing at the World Cup but I wouldn't bet my house on it.

As for Leinster; I think they'd be insane to try to push Fitzgerald into the centre. I remember when he first came onto the scene that 13 was his, mooted, long-term position but he has very, very seldom played there. When he has, I've never seen anything other than the ball stopping with him in the centre. Fitzgerald, in every respect, is a back three player in my opinion.

In terms of Cave and Payne; I don't think there is any Ulster fan who wants to see Payne at anywhere other than 15 and, certainly, none on this forum. For the moment, I believe that Ulster's strongest team also has Cave at 13. Will that be the case in three or four years? I'm not sure. I think Cave will, probably, be the best "pure" outside centre at Ulster for the foreseeable future but I think the Marshall-Olding pairing might be stronger than one featuring Cave.

[shamalicious]

I would frigging love to see a Marshall-Olding centre pairing.

[Russ]

I would frigging love to see a Marshall-Olding centre pairing.

Prefer Olding Cave with LM off the bench

sent from my crozier

[breakdown]

Cave will take over from BOD for the World Cup with Henshaw being the long term option after that

[Russ]

Cave will take over from BOD for the World Cup with Henshaw being the long term option after that

I can see the southern reaction now

sent from my crozier

[Spiffsson]

It might not be too long before we see an Olding-Henshaw combination for Ireland. Both smart, fast, good footballers.

[scrummy]

Whatever combination must include Olding.

[Shan]

Thanks Neil and I tend to agree with you mostly. What I would suggest though is that Darcy has shown he can be a good distributor for Leinster. Some of his passing this year has been as good as I have seen. Though of course one has to factor in my pro-Darcy bias on anything I say.

Not that I am saying I would play Darcy at 13 after this 6N. I am really wondering if Joe would be tempted and I can see enough reasons to think he would be. But in terms of the broader view / long term approach I certainly agree it would not be the desired selection.


Depending on what happens in the European Club Rugby business, and assuming we will continue to have an elite teams competition, with some differences, I think Henshaw is going to have to move from Connacht if he harbours aspirations of being front rank in Ireland terms. It's not what I want as I'd like to see Connacht be allowed to become competitive but in reality they won't be part of the top table.

[Neil F]

Depending on what happens in the European Club Rugby business, and assuming we will continue to have an elite teams competition, with some differences, I think Henshaw is going to have to move from Connacht if he harbours aspirations of being front rank in Ireland terms. It's not what I want as I'd like to see Connacht be allowed to become competitive but in reality they won't be part of the top table.

Indeed. I think this would be very sad - I think Connacht, in the last few seasons, have developed a number of young players, particularly in the backs, who could develop into a formidable unit that would allow the team to compete much better than they currently do. Ultimately, this would be good for Ireland because, whilst de jure the national side draws players from all four provinces, selection is, de facto, from three (and Racing Metro, obviously) - Connacht squad call ups are as rare as hens' teeth and first-team selections even more so! Whilst Henshaw may be seen as the jewel in that crown, guys like Marmion (of whom I have made little secret of my admiration), McSharry and O'Halloron combined would be an interesting unit in a few seasons. It would be sad to see that broken up and sadder to see it broken up because of the rumblings of a few sassenach malcontents!

Henshaw's long-term future, at a guess, will be at 13 for Leinster. I have a similar feeling about Marmion moving there to replace the ageing Reddan and Boss, although obviously, I think it would make much more sense for him to move to Ulster and learn from a master like Pienaar!

[bazzaj]

Sorry to butt in between Shan and Neils chat but the matter of centre is probably the area that is causing most controversy following the recent games.
We do look uncreative as a back line but could be due the fact that we havent looked or needed to create.

For the record I dont think think that Darcy is entitled to stay any longer than BOD as there is only a years age gap between them which is relatively nothing
Both of them have been regularly breaking the gain line which has been giving us the front foot ball to play off and that is something no one is giving them credit for.
As a centre clean breaks are rare but to have an ability to get behind the gain line on a constant basis is massive for any side and something the Welsh and the much vanted Roberts could not do last week,which is his game.
The problem is they are being judged on their previous world class performances of yesteryear and not on the merits of what they actually offer now, which happens to be the best centre pairing in Ireland by a distance.

Anyone who wants to see Payne as a 15 for Ulster long term may well be disappointed as he apparently wants to be a 13 and is the heir apparent to BODs throne.
Logic dictates we are looking for a long term 12 and that would be Marshall for me but its a little too early to tell.

With Joe at the helm, which hopefully he will be for a long time, he may well play various combinations depending on what particular game plan he wants to implement.
Remember he was the man who sucessfully transformed Rougerie to a centre from a wing so he is not afraid to experiment like that.
Whatever he does they will be decisions based on methodical thought and not in the hit and hope vein of a Bergamasco to 9 type selection and that is difference.
Olding at 15?

[Neil F]

Bazz; firstly, I am not at all suggesting that D'Arcy and O'Driscoll have performed poorly. In this thread and others, I've made clear that I think D'Arcy, rightly, is the incumbent 12 for Ireland and O'Driscoll remains the best option at 13. I don't believe D'Arcy's position in the Ireland squad should change if O'Driscoll were to retire. D'Arcy should play as long as he wishes and should remain in contention for Ireland for as long as his game is at the level required. I agree entirely that D'Arcy and O'Driscoll are the best pairing Ireland currently have.

The thing is that, in all likelihood, O'Driscoll will retire at the end of this season. His words on this seem pretty straight forward; he wants to retire. This leaves an O'Driscoll-shaped hole and I think it's this hole that Shan and I are pontificating over, rather than suggesting that O'Driscoll needs replaced in the immediate term.

That said, I stand by my comment that, on pure ability alone, I am not convinced that O'Driscoll is the best 13 playing in Ireland at the moment. I think Cave is, technically, currently better. But rugby is about a lot more than that. The issue, however, is that O'Driscoll's performance is declining; you admit that yourself and I think there are big question makes about how much further that presence would be diminished this time next year (and, therefore, presumably at the next World Cup)? I think the question becomes about how important O'Driscoll's leadership capacity and experience are, therefore and that is also something that is diminishing in time - O'Mahony, Heaslip, Sexton, Murray, (Rob) Kearney etc. all seem to be emerging as leaders, judging by their on-field conduct and that's not to mention the likes of Best, O'Connell and maybe even Henry who also have a lot of leadership experience. For me, the time is right for O'Driscoll to pass over that baton, too.

[bazzaj]

Neil, Most of my comments were in a general sense but I addressed your comment about Payne being 15 directly and Shans suggestion to drop BOD but look at Darcy as a 13.

The problem I would have with Cave that you have to take into account is that with Ulster he is the kingpin and runs the back line which brings out the best in his play.
I feel he needs and yearns that reponsiblity and if Ireland dont give him that they will not get the best out of him.
I cant see the likes of Sexton or Kearney defering to him which I would guess is why he has not featured in any Irish team of note, regardless of his club form.

No question that BOD has lost a bit of his edge but what the point I am making is that he has gone from being the best centre in the world to being a good international centre but he is being judged by his previous performances.
Put it this way if DC played and performed the exact same way that BOD did on Saturday everyone on this board would be heralding him as the nailed on Irelands 13 of the future.

Perhaps by the next World cup BODs form may have dipped horrendously but I dont see the point in dropping him for an inferior player for the sake of it at the moment, until such times that a viable rival for his jersey come along (Payne).
The World Cup is only next year, BOD will be 36 and younger than Brian Lima when he was smashing people in the 2007 world cup and putting the fear of God into the eventual winners the Springbox.
As Shan suggests under Schmidt right now BOD will be contemplating similar things and reconsidering that decision.