Tory Leadership Thread

[Neil F]

Bazza: I fear your logic is exactly what people thought would happen after economic collapse in 2007/2008, particularly with the banking sector. Look at where we are less than a decade later. Reforms have been nil. One person went to jail. The sector rallied around itself, protected itself, and carried on much as it always has. Any belief that the same won't happen to British politics in the medium-term is misplaced.

Let's face it, even if the referendum was the event you describe, no political leader with notions of power is going to be stupid enough to pull that sort of trick again, given what's happened in recent weeks. This will be a one-off that comes with massive costs and that will lead to very little change because, like bankers, politicians are more likely to close ranks to preserve the status-quo than to change it. Few (the occasional Farage aside, who can make their own career out of being deliberate contrarian, whilst not at all minding being a figure of utter hate among a significant proportion of the population) have the private incentives to lead the kind of change you're talking about. The Tories sure as hell don't. They've already closed ranks. Hence why May is now the PM. Labour's incompetence, alternatively, has been exposed by the outcome of the referendum but certainly not caused by it.

To me, voting to leave the EU is cataclysmically stupid on basically every front, although I accept dissenting opinions and don't really seek to judge those who voted differently than I did. If people did it on the premise that it would instigate real change in the political system, though, I'd find that hard to stomach. It is a very, very costly way to make a point that simply won't register in the long-term.

[bazzaj]

When we joined the EU in the 70s we were the poor man of Europe Neil.
Now we are in a strong position economically and propping up Europe's lame ducks who couldn't manage theirs.
Time to leave them to it.

Financial experts pre and post referendum said there was no long term certainty to the economical future of the UK if we left the EU good or bad..
It would be a risk and it's all guess work.
I don't therefore know why you can say with utter conviction that we are screwed.

I don't recall talk of major political reform during the recession other than the likes of me becoming the victim of austerity measures being blamed for the mis-management of banks.
Incidentally haven't seen a penny back now they seem to be creaming it again.

The point about the tories is true-they are tories and always will be.
Your point about Labour isn't.
They will be back to being what they should be- an actual opposition and antidote to Conservatism.

[mikerob]

I can't see any real change in the political landscape bazzaj.

The rich will do well because they always do. The poor will get shafted because they always are.

The political fat cats will still find opportunities to get the cream. They'll be so desperate for trade deals that I guarantee there will be scandals as they get bought off, entertained or duped by overseas business interests

Labour are currently unelectable but then they were unelectable under Michael Foot. The Conservatives are the de facto government until they implode at some stage in the future.

[Neil F]

Bazza, on the first part, I fear that either I wasn't clear or you have misunderstood. The crash of 2007/2008 was, at the time, viewed by many (very naïvely) as something that would fundamentally change the operations of the banking sector. It didn't. I did not intend to wrap any form of political reform into that. Rather, I drew a comparison between two self-interested and (supposedly) distant elites. As the massive shock to the economic and banking system did not change the private incentives of a banking elite to change behaviour, nor will Brexit change the private incentives of most of those involved in politics. More so, given that recessions are inevitable, where as referendums are not, it's unlikely that any self-interested politician will be stupid enough to put themselves in this kind of position again. At the mercy of wider economic trends, bankers don't have such options. If one views Brexit as an act of sabotage of vested political interests, that's fair enough but I find it fundamentally wrong to think of it as anything other than a one-off that will have significant costs without meaningfully changing the political landscape.

On the second part, I disagree strongly. I'm no macroeconomist but I'm a moderately good microeconomist and have cause in my day-to-day life to read vast quantities of economic literature. To date, I've seen no meaningful evidence at all that the UK economy is hampered, in any way, by the EU or any subset of it and a fair bit that supports the notion that it's not. I'm happy to revisit this if you can provide some, of course but the poor performance of other EU countries, or of the Eurozone, provides an easy source of blame for those with the incentives to point their finger because of its own internal issues. The causal link to the UK, however, is entirely missing in this factor. Similarly, I can perhaps understand (on an intuitive level) why people are opposed to bailing out other EU countries (although I suspect Londoners could then declare independence from the UK on similar grounds), yet there is little clamour for the UK to stop funding other bodies that do the same - the IMF, for example.

To me, the economic evidence is entirely clear. You're right - there's no certainly in anything but the evidence that was available certainly provided good reference points about the various probabilities of what would happen. The overwhelming outcomes of these studies is not reflected in the relative neutrality with which many people seemed to view the phenomenon. Certainly, there are significantly stronger grounds to believe that Brexit will damage the UK than there are to believe that the UK will benefit from it.

[rumncoke]

Baz

Even if we were the "the Poor Man of Europe " in the 70s being in the EU has had little input in any change of status .

Unless you lived through the 70s you would have little understanding of the many factors which lead many to think of UK as "the poor man of Europe." Rising Oil prices , bad labour relations , dying industries , high inflation , high interest rates, weak governments ,and if you lived in Norn Ireland you had bombs, bullets, murders, and riots as well .

None of that was cured by the EU as presently constituted.

[bazzaj]

Not so long ago the unions were running the country which gave birth to Thatcherism which gave birth to Blairites which turned into Cameroonism each directly affected and influenced the next.
For good and bad.

Leaving the EU will have an effect of vulnerability amongst politicians.
Its a reminder that it's not just the money men that need to be appeased.

They have ignored the working classes for long enough and have paid the price with a leave vote.
My hope the big change is that there are people outside of London who need attention.
May has said as much so hopefully that is the legacy.

[rumncoke]

Baz

Cameron as PM had just about run his course and a change of leadership in the Tory party was due even without the leave vote the vote saved Cameron from the knife in the back. The trouble for the labour party was Blair sat in Number 10 too long and Brown had to kick him out the problem then was Brown was totally useless because the labour party had taxed the country trying to buy votes with useless jobs in Local Government and the well had run dry.

[bazzaj]

And to Neil.
I don't need to be a financial expert to know when I've been shafted.
As a city banker or someone in that line of work I would have voted in, of course I would and would be stupid not to.

But I'm not.
Sorry if I let you all down and hope it wouldn't affect their monthly bonuses which are incidentally equivalent to my recently stolen pension.
Hey ho.

[bazzaj]

To rum
Didn't get the impression Cameron was stepping down till the next term

[mikerob]

They have ignored the working classes for long enough and have paid the price with a leave vote.

The majority of people in employment (temporary and part time) voted to remain.

The majority of people not in employment (unemployed and retired) voted to leave.

Now maybe you mean to say "unemployed" rather than "working classes" but the majority of people who are actually working voted to remain.

[BaggyTrousers]

So David Davis to BRexit, how facesitting.....yeah facesitting.

Fackin Boris eh? Amongst the most dispised men in the UK. So the man who Barrenness May derided for his three nearly new water canon is tasked with not pissingoff foreigners. Must have been a close run thing between dePeffel and Dukie Embra.

Gove, any mention ?

Gideon out

Don't you really wish you were at home for this?

I'm liking the cut of Mrs May's jib so far. She has clearly set out her stall to occupy the middle ground vacated by Jezza's Revolutionary People's Marxist Liberation Front and the rump formerly known as the Liberal Democrats. There may be hope for a chap such as myself who favours inclusive political policies and has a desire to see a strong, just and equitable social agenda. I may just be able to go along with this Tory government.
Not forgetting that there may be an option for Russ to come out as a Tory, after all this time masquerading as a Liberal.

Not really Snipe, I'm managing rightly thanks, but yeah I know what you mean.

I too now that I've seen the entirety of the main positions think she has done a pretty clever job, all the home positions by and large in the hands of those she considers "friendly" to her views and all the positions dealing with foreigners handed to Brexiteers like that utterbastard Fox and of course dePfeffel, a man only slightly less loonie than Edinburgh himself. Opportunities for great comedic moments such as him running over some slitty eyed kid again.

On her opening statement outside No.10, I find myself in the position of wanting to believe her but remaining highly dubious that those words can be genuine from any Tory. Given the state of play on the benches opposite, I can only hope that she will indeed be a Tory I can have something other than caution and hatred for.

Good luck to her, for with a large number of swivel eyed loons in her party and a majority of twelve, perhaps she might even make some regular mutual cause with strange bedfellows in the SNP, if she proves socially liberal and prepared to broaden out who benefits in society than is the Tory norm.

My biggest hope with the removal of Gideon is that she is anti austerity to an extent and that we might see some of what the SNP proposed at the last election - cautious investment in infrastructure to create jobs and wealth, maybe at the expense of the dumb vanity project of a largely unnecessary high speed train link and a large house building project. Too much to hope for? Yeah probably but if she means anything of what she said that would be the sort of thing I'd look for.

Right siesta almost over. Later

[bazzaj]

They have ignored the working classes for long enough and have paid the price with a leave vote.

The majority of people in employment (temporary and part time) voted to remain.

The majority of people not in employment (unemployed and retired) voted to leave.

Now maybe you mean to say "unemployed" rather than "working classes" but the majority of people who are actually working voted to remain.

Well Mike being as no one asked me how I voted I consider that statement null and void.

[mikerob]

Loathsome gets DEFRA, so farming, fishing and floods.

Another you broke it, you fix it appointment as Loathsome will need to explain why leaving the EU is good for agriculture and fishing.

[mikerob]

James Brokenshire (who he?) gets NI.

A remainer, probably more appropriate for NI.

However I wonder when MPs get the call, are they thinking "Please god, not NI, please god, not NI..."

[solidarity]

James Brokenshire (who he?) gets NI.

A remainer, probably more appropriate for NI.

However I wonder when MPs get the call, are they thinking "Please god, not NI, please god, not NI..."

May as well get it over with.

If ever a man' name suited his job...