5 reasons why we will win on Saturday

[bazzaj]

Cockerill pretty much knows what's coming,

If he does hes a better man than most of us having seen our predicted starting back row.

[Cockatrice]

Either side can win this, they are both very capable, one thing in our favour(at home helps, but this is not the "fortress" it used to be) is planning for this weekends game. Cockerill pretty much knows what's coming, he also knows who is going to be starting in a likely to be different team/bench from the previous games. Difficult to have a plan if you don't know how the opposition will line up. Will it be Youngs or Mele at 9, two very different styles of player, I expect Flood at 10 and Allen at 12, but Williams throws a curved ball into the equation at 10 too. 13 could be Smith, or it could be Goneva and Miles Benjamin is showing the sort of pace and form to concern anyone. Tait and Nial Morris will catch any high balls coming their way all day and then there's our pack.
Ayerza and Cole will start and I am led to believe Tom Youngs was "resting" last week, one of the best front rows around and a couple of good ball carriers/winners too. Slater and Kitchener are both available along with Deacon and De Chaves, pity there's no Parling for the lineouts, but they will do the business, Slater and Kitch are probably the best two scrummaging locks in the Premiership.
Backrow with Salvi means we have our top scavenger for loose ball, Gibson is keeping Matera, the Argentinian star out, so we are barely noticing Croft is missing. Crane and Waldrom are both good at straightening the line and this is before Mafi comes on. Add Logo into the equation as well and I can see you guys asking for the lineout again, if there's a not straight throw in, as I don't think you will want to scrum. Then there's our rolling maul................so many reasons why you might not win, but who knows

Best we stay and home and just give you the points tiggie

[ruckover]

Either side can win this, they are both very capable, one thing in our favour(at home helps, but this is not the "fortress" it used to be) is planning for this weekends game. Cockerill pretty much knows what's coming, he also knows who is going to be starting in a likely to be different team/bench from the previous games. Difficult to have a plan if you don't know how the opposition will line up. Will it be Youngs or Mele at 9, two very different styles of player, I expect Flood at 10 and Allen at 12, but Williams throws a curved ball into the equation at 10 too. 13 could be Smith, or it could be Goneva and Miles Benjamin is showing the sort of pace and form to concern anyone. Tait and Nial Morris will catch any high balls coming their way all day and then there's our pack.
Ayerza and Cole will start and I am led to believe Tom Youngs was "resting" last week, one of the best front rows around and a couple of good ball carriers/winners too. Slater and Kitchener are both available along with Deacon and De Chaves, pity there's no Parling for the lineouts, but they will do the business, Slater and Kitch are probably the best two scrummaging locks in the Premiership.
Backrow with Salvi means we have our top scavenger for loose ball, Gibson is keeping Matera, the Argentinian star out, so we are barely noticing Croft is missing. Crane and Waldrom are both good at straightening the line and this is before Mafi comes on. Add Logo into the equation as well and I can see you guys asking for the lineout again, if there's a not straight throw in, as I don't think you will want to scrum. Then there's our rolling maul................so many reasons why you might not win, but who knows

And here's a few reasons why you won't win:
1. Your team is not as unpredictable as you make it out to be. I can't imagine Cockerill making floods of changes to a side that won with a bonus point last week against a stubborn Treviso side. Allen will definitely start at 12 meaning Flood will start at 10 meaning Mele will then come in at 9 so he can kick. Youngs will be back and Crane will replace Waldrom as a safety selection. Only questionable area is lock where you have Deacon/Slater/Kitchener to choose from, but I wouldn't worry about any of them. Apart from lock though, your team is easily predictable.
2. Mulipola and Kitchener are both short on game time. Risky throwing them back in for such a big game.
3. Salvi has nothing on Henry.
4. Benjamin has nothing but pace. He has no other aspect to his game. He's a liability in my opinion.
5. Your scrum was beaten by Treviso last week in early stages. I would back us to get at least parity then with ours.

[Spiffsson]

If Ulster play the way they did against Montpellier in Montpellier, they will win. Of that I have no doubt. Leicester's defence looks porous at times; look at their performance at Welford Road against Montpellier, for example. Ulster have the backs to exploit that and a forward pack that won't be bullied the way Monpellier let themselves be at the start of that game.

I can't be the only person who has been distinctly unimpressed with Leicester, right? But for three scores in the last few moments, we'd be looking at a team with five fewer match points than they actually have. Some might say that is the sign of a great team and, in part, I agree that the ability to play with to the 80 is a hugely admirable trait and a sign of the quality Ulster will face. But, a better team would not have been in those positions, repeatedly. The simple fact is that Ulster haven't been in such perilous positions in the same group against the same teams and, certainly away to Montpellier, they beat (and beat well) a significantly better Montpellier team than the Tigers limped home against.

Past form, on the day, means nothing, of course. There are far too many variables that can influence the outcome of a rugby game to draw any meaningful inference here. That said, I think many Ulster fans are in danger of seriously over-estimating what we've observed from Leicester this season. It'll be a tough game. The outcome isn't certain but Ulster, sure as hell, can win this one. And I will say that if Ulster play as well as we've seen them play at other times this season, then they will win. If Ulster put in the kind of performance they did in Montpellier, the Tigers can no more live with Ulster than Pells could.

If I was a betting man, the Ulster shades would have a tenner on Ulster to win by a score.

The Ulster forwards did let themselves be bullied by Munster who mauled over easily for two tries, then did it a third time but could not ground the ball. Leicester have one of the most hard-nosed packs in the AP and I have some worries the same thing could happen again. I am not nearly so confident of an Ulster win as most posters here. Once again - it will probably come down to Ruaan (and possibly, but I hope not, to Nigel Owens).

[againstthehead]

Most worrying thing was Against the Head being positive and optimistic. That nearly threw me.

As ruckover has eloquently highlighted above there are many reasons why the tigers could win this one and indeed, on paper, at home they probably should. However, the fact that we haven't really performed since Montpellier gives me great hope and indeed expectation. This side has the potential for massive performances. We don't deliver them week in, week out but I'm hopefull that the coaching staff and wider management will have us in the right place come Saturday.

To be absolutely honest, there's a bit of bravado in my original post. My head says Tigers by 4-6. But on this occasion, I'm going againstthehead ( ). Me gut tells me there's a performance around the corner....

[tigerburnie]

I wasn't confident until I read TBs diatribe of utter bull testicle. I now hope we rub it right up them.

Did I not use enough of these...................
You boys are getting very tense..calm down........calm down(in my best scouse accent...............

[Rooster]

I wasn't confident until I read TBs diatribe of utter bull testicle. I now hope we rub it right up them.

Did I not use enough of these...................
You boys are getting very tense..calm down........calm down(in my best scouse accent...............

What is a scouser doing supporting Leicester ?

[Gary]

Feck, I was wondering where my wheels went. Makes sense now.

[Russ]

Im over excited

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

[bazzaj]

If Ulster play the way they did against Montpellier in Montpellier, they will win. Of that I have no doubt. Leicester's defence looks porous at times; look at their performance at Welford Road against Montpellier, for example. Ulster have the backs to exploit that and a forward pack that won't be bullied the way Monpellier let themselves be at the start of that game.

I can't be the only person who has been distinctly unimpressed with Leicester, right? But for three scores in the last few moments, we'd be looking at a team with five fewer match points than they actually have. Some might say that is the sign of a great team and, in part, I agree that the ability to play with to the 80 is a hugely admirable trait and a sign of the quality Ulster will face. But, a better team would not have been in those positions, repeatedly. The simple fact is that Ulster haven't been in such perilous positions in the same group against the same teams and, certainly away to Montpellier, they beat (and beat well) a significantly better Montpellier team than the Tigers limped home against.

Past form, on the day, means nothing, of course. There are far too many variables that can influence the outcome of a rugby game to draw any meaningful inference here. That said, I think many Ulster fans are in danger of seriously over-estimating what we've observed from Leicester this season. It'll be a tough game. The outcome isn't certain but Ulster, sure as hell, can win this one. And I will say that if Ulster play as well as we've seen them play at other times this season, then they will win. If Ulster put in the kind of performance they did in Montpellier, the Tigers can no more live with Ulster than Pells could.

If I was a betting man, the Ulster shades would have a tenner on Ulster to win by a score.

The Ulster forwards did let themselves be bullied by Munster who mauled over easily for two tries, then did it a third time but could not ground the ball. Leicester have one of the most hard-nosed packs in the AP and I have some worries the same thing could happen again. I am not nearly so confident of an Ulster win as most posters here. Once again - it will probably come down to Ruaan (and possibly, but I hope not, to Nigel Owens).

This is an interesting point from Spiffers I would like to expand on.
We used to be a mauling team particularly under McGlocks where we played a pressure type game into corners and armed wrestled our way over.
Our maul was a very effective weapon.
Since MA has taken over we have introduced a multiphase element to our game with width.
I wonder if we have since neglected our mauling and there is no coincidence that other sides have taken note and have mauled us of late?

The top teams can do both as and when required and I prefer the multiphase option which is also easier on the eye but there is definately a time and a place for both.
Thinking back to the Munster game I was taken aback by the lack of co-ordinated effort to repel the Munster maul as people were hitting it individually.
You can talk about bulk being a factor but this is more about physics.

We know whats coming from Leicester now as that will not be lost on them.
We have to set earlier and low as a unit and the 9 with his head up must communicate with his forwards where to hit the oppo.
None of this has happened of late.

I am not given this the biggun as this is all basic stuff as its on the top of page 1 of how to defend mauls.
I am just staggered that we did not do it but I am sure alarm bells are ringing and its being sorted as we speak.

[browner]

Well if defending against the maul is a weakness we'll need to attack and disrupt their line-out.
If I remember correctly we done this quite well at Ravenhill.

[Gael]

If Ulster play the way they did against Montpellier in Montpellier, they will win. Of that I have no doubt. Leicester's defence looks porous at times; look at their performance at Welford Road against Montpellier, for example. Ulster have the backs to exploit that and a forward pack that won't be bullied the way Monpellier let themselves be at the start of that game.

I can't be the only person who has been distinctly unimpressed with Leicester, right? But for three scores in the last few moments, we'd be looking at a team with five fewer match points than they actually have. Some might say that is the sign of a great team and, in part, I agree that the ability to play with to the 80 is a hugely admirable trait and a sign of the quality Ulster will face. But, a better team would not have been in those positions, repeatedly. The simple fact is that Ulster haven't been in such perilous positions in the same group against the same teams and, certainly away to Montpellier, they beat (and beat well) a significantly better Montpellier team than the Tigers limped home against.

Past form, on the day, means nothing, of course. There are far too many variables that can influence the outcome of a rugby game to draw any meaningful inference here. That said, I think many Ulster fans are in danger of seriously over-estimating what we've observed from Leicester this season. It'll be a tough game. The outcome isn't certain but Ulster, sure as hell, can win this one. And I will say that if Ulster play as well as we've seen them play at other times this season, then they will win. If Ulster put in the kind of performance they did in Montpellier, the Tigers can no more live with Ulster than Pells could.

If I was a betting man, the Ulster shades would have a tenner on Ulster to win by a score.

The Ulster forwards did let themselves be bullied by Munster who mauled over easily for two tries, then did it a third time but could not ground the ball. Leicester have one of the most hard-nosed packs in the AP and I have some worries the same thing could happen again. I am not nearly so confident of an Ulster win as most posters here. Once again - it will probably come down to Ruaan (and possibly, but I hope not, to Nigel Owens).

This is an interesting point from Spiffers I would like to expand on.
We used to be a mauling team particularly under McGlocks where we played a pressure type game into corners and armed wrestled our way over.
Our maul was a very effective weapon.
Since MA has taken over we have introduced a multiphase element to our game with width.
I wonder if we have since neglected our mauling and there is no coincidence that other sides have taken note and have mauled us of late?

The top teams can do both as and when required and I prefer the multiphase option which is also easier on the eye but there is definately a time and a place for both.
Thinking back to the Munster game I was taken aback by the lack of co-ordinated effort to repel the Munster maul as people were hitting it individually.
You can talk about bulk being a factor but this is more about physics.

We know whats coming from Leicester now as that will not be lost on them.
We have to set earlier and low as a unit and the 9 with his head up must communicate with his forwards where to hit the oppo.
None of this has happened of late.

I am not given this the biggun as this is all basic stuff as its on the top of page 1 of how to defend mauls.
I am just staggered that we did not do it but I am sure alarm bells are ringing and its being sorted as we speak.

I thought we were disastrous at defending the maul under McGlock too, as well as collecting restarts.

[bazzaj]

Lineouts are the ideal and obvious position position to maul from and I have to say attacking wise done effectively it is hard to defend against especially from 5 out.
This is really the crux of what we are talking about since you werent allowed to pull them down and cards starting being introduced.

Sides are left to decide whether to compete or set early.
If you compete it puts pressure on the thrower but there are holes left and of course you cant stop it at source.
Thats what we chose to do against Munster.
Also I notice that RP as a nine defends the 5 metre channel and is scarcely in the picture the entire time.
The 9 is the vital cog in mauling as he should be the director and eyes for his forwards in defending and attacking mauls as the forwards should be driving with their heads down.

Whatever is decided it has to be a collective commited approach to the cause and that can only be done with communication.
None of that can be appled to what we have seen.
Hate to be be telling the great man RP what he should be doing but as Roy Walker would say "Say what you see".
Maybe thats the problem that people are too scared to.

[Neil F]

The Ulster forwards did let themselves be bullied by Munster who mauled over easily for two tries, then did it a third time but could not ground the ball. Leicester have one of the most hard-nosed packs in the AP and I have some worries the same thing could happen again. I am not nearly so confident of an Ulster win as most posters here. Once again - it will probably come down to Ruaan (and possibly, but I hope not, to Nigel Owens).

Spaceman Spiff, whilst this is a very relevant point, I can think of a number of mediating points in Ulster's defence. Afoa, Henderson and Henry were all coming back in for the first time after spells on the sidelines (or from otherwise being away). In the case of Henry and Henderson, these spells were somewhat protracted. It was also an Ulster pack still missing Best and Muller. Missing a quarter of a first-choice pack is bad enough but Best and Muller are the two big leaders in that pack and the absence of both is, therefore, significantly more damaging than the absence of any other two players from that pack (with the potential exception of Chris Henry, whose contribution to the general performance of the Ulster team lacks comparatives at times).

I think there is a danger in taking the performance against Munster as indicative of a general trend, rather than as an understandably fractured performance. Don't get me wrong, performances like that raise (or reraise, really) spectres about strength in depth and why the absence of certain players affects how Ulster play in a way that they don't seem to affect Munster or Leinster. That said, a pack with three guys having had limited game time and training time . This is now a couple of weeks on, without major (enforced) selection changes. One would expect significantly greater unity than in the Munster game come Saturday. On this front, I am not so worried. It doesn't make the performance against Munster any more acceptable, but the questions that performance raised shouldn't be at the forefront of our minds this weekend. Personally, I don't see Ulster's forward being fractured in the way they were against Munster.

[Big Smoke Culchie]

You should never underestimate Leicester. If you look over the past 20 years they are by far the best club in England. They have a big history which they are very proud of and a passionate support. I only wish Ulster could have been as successful as them over the previous 20 years.

Saying that, I've never been more confident of an Ulster win at Welford Road. Personally, I'd like to see Salvi trampled underfoot. The guy really is a massive tool. It's going to be a bit of a battle and a few boys who expected to be training with Ireland next week could find themselves in the treatment room instead.