ERC Rankings for next year

[Rooster]

It probably makes little difference anyway as the relative numbers from each country have probably more effect on end result of draw than your actual seeding position, with we can't play them and they can't play someone else etc

[mikerob]

I think the current ERC rankings and HEC qualifiers look like this

Toulouse (31) +4
Munster (29)* +2
Leinster (27)* +4
Cardiff (21)
Biarritz (20)
Leicester (18)

Northampton (16) +4
Clermont (14) +2
Ospreys (14)
London Irish (11)
Ulster (10)*
Saracens (10)

Gloucester (10)*
Harlequins (10) +3
Glasgow (8)*
Scarlets (7)
Edinburgh (6)*
Castres (4)

Treviso (4)*
Aironi (3)*
Montpellier (3)
Racing (2)

* means the team has already qualified for the HEC
+ means the team can still add to their ranking points

The following teams aren't currently in HEC qualification position in domestic leagues but have a higher ranking than Ulster.
Perpignan (15) +4
Stade Francais (14) +3
Bath (13)
Wasps (11)

The list is based upon current positions in domestic leagues however teams still have 3/4 more games to play in the ML, T14 and AP.

Two more teams will qualify dependent on HEC and ACC winners.

So as it stands, Ulster is a second seed however we will drop down to third seeds if 2 or more teams qualify with a higher ranking.

This would mean two or more of the following events happening:
- Harlequins beating Munster in the ACC SF and qualifying for the HEC
- Stade Francais winning the ACC or qualifying for the HEC
- Perpignan winning the HEC or qualifying for the HEC
- Bath qualifying for the HEC
- Wasps qualifying for the HEC

Even if some of these teams don't qualify for the HEC in their domestic leagues, they could still qualify dependent on who wins the HEC and ACC.

[mikerob]

Its a wee bit of work to set up a spreadsheet to track this (which I did a few years ago) but once that's done, its easy to keep it updated & you can get the list above just by sorting.

[mikerob]

Is it too much to hope for a lame English team, a French team that doesn't travel and either and Italian or Scottish team!

Once all the qualifiers are known it is possible to work out the probabilities, but if Ulster manage to stay as second seeds, then draws of, for example, Cardiff, Ulster, Quins, Montpellier, or Biarritz, Ulster, Quins, Aironi would be amongst the easiest possible.

[Rooster]

Like the sound of Biarritz, Ulster, Quins and Aironi

[backawaygoonahead]

My dream group would be Cardiff, Ulster, Glasgow & Aironi however since we got our best ever group this year we are probably due to get Leicester, Perpignan, Ulster, Castres.

[pwrmoore]

My dream group would be Cardiff, Ulster, Glasgow & Aironi however since we got our best ever group this year we are probably due to get Leicester, Perpignan, Ulster, Castres.

with a minimum of six french teams and six english teams taking partin the HEC, and the rules for group composition prohibiting two teams from the same Union in the same group (except when a union provides a seventh team)there must always be one english and one french team along with us in our group.

[mikerob]

My dream group would be Cardiff, Ulster, Glasgow & Aironi however since we got our best ever group this year we are probably due to get Leicester, Perpignan, Ulster, Castres.

The first group can't happen - no English team. The second group is theoretically possible but unlikely as a group with 2 French teams will contain the bottom ranked French team which is more likely to be Montpellier or Racing than Castres.