Declan Kidney – the amazing diminishing rugby coach

[BaggyTrousers]

As ever a fine post from RHH. I have tried loads of times to make my starting position clear, but I’ll do it again – I think Kidney’s record is extremely impressive for Munster and Ireland in 2009, I think he is clearly a knowledgeable and astute rugby brain, and in the past he has successfully built coaching teams. I wasn’t a fan of his appointment in the first place, because I would have preferred an outsider. I think some Irish fans, particularly Leinster fans who don’t remember his time there with relish, do have a problem with him, no matter what – I don’t. I’m not a malcontent, I just believe that in sports, as in any walk of life, it is possible for guys to be extremely successful for a period of time, and then unsuccessful for a time (think of Arsene Wenger right now for example...)

(I also don’t entirely agree with the level of adversity supposedly faced by Munster and Ireland – it was after all a pretty star-studded Munster side as well which finally beat Toulouse in ’06, and by that stage a pretty battle-hardened and experienced Munster; and as RHH says, the Slam followed years of under-achievement. That’s not to detract for these achievements, just to put what in my view is a more realistic spin on them)

Past success isn’t necessarily a guarantor of present or future success and I think that if fans, pundits and not least the coach’s employers continue to hark back to achievements in the earlier part of a coach’s career to mitigate shortfalls in th epresent is a dangerous and complacent path to go down. So I don’t disrespect or discount the success he has had in the past, but he, like the rest of us, has to be accountable for what he is doing in the here and now. And in my opinion, dating back to 2010 (when I started this thread, so I’m not a johnny-come-lately ‘malcontent’) is that what he has been doing is not good enough.

For example I don’t think it’s good enough to say that he is aware of the impotence of Ireland’s backs under Gaffney, but pragmatically works around it – sack Gaffney and replace him! Or over-rule him! Tell him that having our backs lying flat, not bringing our dangerous runners (Bowe, Trimble, Kearney) intyo the game, unless getting tackled into touch counts, is not good enough! His main supposed strength is not as a hands-on coach, but as the builder of successful teams of hands-on coaches – so surely to persist with Gaffney while things clearly aren’t working is a failing on his part?

I think he shouldn’t be any different from any of the rest of us – take a salesman whose target is £400k of income, he gets £500k in his first year and is the star of the show, but then £250k for the next 2 years – in the real world would he get a pat on the back and a contract extension? Or a boot up the ar$e and a final warning?

One or two points:
- You clearly didn't bother with my post otherwise you would have realised that Munster beat Biarritz in 2006 but minor point & of course feel free to ignore this post as well.
- You describe pre-2009 as underachievement and there is an argument in that direction however it shouldn't go without comment that the period 2000-2008 was the single most successful period in the history of Irish Rugby lack only tournament wins but scattered with a higher win ratio than any similar period before or since. As Mad Rafa would say "FACT"
- If I may refer to it as your Anti-Gaffney rant, that has been resolved, he is on his way.
- Comparing a rugby coach to a salesman is risible, there is no similarity in their job spec whatsoever. Straws & clutching are words that come to mind.
- Arsene Venger????? Comparing a club coach to an international coach, never mind comparing an international rugby coach to a soccer club coach - is a bit of a stretch.
- You have chosen to ignore RHH's point about the narrow margin between a very ordinary looking 6Ns and the couple of factors which if different could have produced another Grand Slam despite the rugby quality not being wonderful. Do you really blame Kidney for Peter Allen & his pal the SA ref?
- You have consistently throughout the period in question ignored the fact that unlike 2009 there have been several injury problems involving our very finest players and despite your constant denials it is a plain truth that we have a small player base, especially international class players, than the vast number of our genuine competitors I.e. SH nations & England & France.
- In many previous posts you yearned for a Jake White or a Joe Scmidt ignoring the fact that Jake White had a totally unremarkable record as a coach at international level prior to him having a Graham Henry like luxury of suddenly having a deep pool of skill for a long tournament where depth of pool has always been a factor. Fair play to him but you are as happy to airbrush his past failings much in the same way as you are almost prepared to dismiss Kidney as a hapless fool who once upon a time wasn't a bad rugby coach (the DK bit of that may be a tad unfair) I only recently posted about JS so I'm not going to rehash that here, sufficient to say you rowed back a little by saying something to the effect of "I didn't mean JS specifically, just someone with good credentials & no Irish baggage (sorry if my memory isn't 100% accurate on that but I believe it to be the gist of it.) Finally good old Jake White has singularly failed to get the sort of appointment that he felt was his for the taking - perhaps folks like the IRFU, RFU and others aren't quite the body of old farts & fools we often paint them to be.
- Interesting your financial services like "health warning" of "Past success isn't a guarantor of present or future success didn't have the usual addition of the ratio of rugby matches won or lost can go up or down whereas you seem on to expect any coach to have a steadily rising graph of success. Nothing in life is like that.

As for the impotence of the backs, I am not inclined to perform a study but there are different factors at work:
- Rule changes throughout the decade which in my opinion have made defence a more decisive factor and changed the style of play. Long kicking battles, interminable scrums for example.
- Italy becoming less of a chopping block to most 6Ns nations as victory over France Scotland & Wales in recent season prove not to mention them troubling Ireland more than once without winning.

[BaggyTrousers]

Ireland have more registered players (at all levels) approx 101000 compared with 87000**

True we have fewer professional teams but Ireland being so close to Europe we probably have more eligible players playing in other countries.#

Either way there is probably little difference in our player pools compared with the likes of France, England, SA or NZ.

**Taken from wikipedia so no doubt it's incorrect

Jackie, lets just say that Wiki is 100% dead on balls accurate. You and I both know that amateur & pro rugby are wildly different entities. Comparing every schools & club player adds nothing to the debate but a pure mathematical fact.

I suggest that only numbers of pro rugby players is remotely relevant - you may of course disagree.

Look at the numbers of non-Ireland based players in our RWC squad & I suggest again that argument is of very minor relevance.

Finally I have acknowledged on several threads that Oz is "the exception that proves the rule" and they of course have the same kind of number problems that we do. A similarity can be drawn in that they usually come 3rd over a long period period of comparison behind SA & NZ just as we do behind England & France.

The remarkable thing about the Aussies is that they have the best RWC record of all. The only thing I can think of that separates them from us is their history of sporting success & winning mentality. However judged purely against their RWC performance no country holds a candle to them.

[Snipe Watson]

Australia have a large Rugby league player pool and regularly dip into it.

[BaggyTrousers]

I thought that too, Snipe but couldn't be bothered checking whether or not that was included in the wiki figures.

[darkside lightside]

Why do people think we have a smaller talent pool than the Aussies?

Lets make this quick, they have 5 professional teams we have 4. Simples.

Haven't done an in depth analysis Jackie but I would guess that our proportion of non-nataionals is also larger but open to correction.

Australia have 5 pro teams, 3 of which came in the bottom 4 of the last super XV season. The Reds and Tahs provide 2/3 of the current national squad. They seem to have fairly small core squads of around 30 each year, presumably supported by academy structures - these seem to have 3-5 NAQs (Rebels have 7). Adam D'Arcy came to us from the fringes of the Reds (?) squad, and was a bit of a star for Manly (I remember reading a load of laudatory stories about him scoring tons of tries and goal-kicking and all sorts) - no disrespect to him, and he has done a good job for us, but he would be one of the lesser lights of our full strength backs squad. There are some RL crossover players, but the higher profile ones haven't been markedly successful (and if you speak to Aussies, they are usually pretty unconvinced at best about the ability of league players to cross over).

Throw all that together - you're looking at a pool of players for international selection similar in number to Ireland's.

[darkside lightside]

Baggy, sorry to make you feel left out, see selective responses below:

- Re salesman and Arsene Wenger, I thought it would be obvious that I was drawing analogies, rather than making a literal comparison of job roles
- re RHH’s point about the narrow margin between a bad and good 6N, I think the principle is certainly sound, at professional level the margins are pretty narrow. That said I thought that regardless of the bad try against Wales, our performance in that game was crap. Against France I couldn’t believe we didn’t win, and it was a better performance, but what lost it for us was a horrendous penalty count – because, in Kidney’s words, ‘we make no bones about competing for the ball on the ground’
- Small player base.. blah blah blah. yawn.
- Schmidt, Deans and Howard are the names I mention most – not sure I’ve ever been that keen about White?
- I don’t expect any coach to have an ‘ever-rising graph of success’. I expect him to get performances and results commensurate with the resources at his disposal – and Kidney didn’t do that in 2010 and 2011.

[BaggyTrousers]

Baggy, sorry to make you feel left out,Just hate to see mistakes repeated unnecessarily DL see selective responses below:

- Re salesman and Arsene Wenger, I thought it would be obvious that I was drawing analogies, rather than making a literal comparison of job roles Nice if transparent attempt to ignore the fact that they are simply ludicrous comparisons
- re RHH’s point about the narrow margin between a bad and good 6N, I think the principle is certainly sound, at professional level the margins are pretty narrow. That said I thought that regardless of the bad try against Wales, our performance in that game was crapCompletely agree with the obvious note that Wales never looked like scoring from their trailing position, its not as if they were being robbed - sheer daylight robbery against Ireland. Against France I couldn’t believe we didn’t win, and it was a better performance, but what lost it for us was a horrendous penalty count – because, in Kidney’s words, ‘we make no bones about competing for the ball on the ground’
- Small player base.. blah blah blah. yawn. Poo hooing facts doesn't make them wrong
- Schmidt, Deans and Howard are the names I mention most – not sure I’ve ever been that keen about White? You most certainly have mentioned White in your many posts on Kidneys position you rowed back from Schmidt, Howard ? Credentials please. Deans a great reputation will succeed the Great Redeemer either in 2 years time or the future but if Deccie were to die suddenly & Deans wanted the job I'd say Whoppeeeeeeeeeeeeee
- I don’t expect any coach to have an ‘ever-rising graph of success’. I expect him to get performances and results commensurate with the resources at his disposal – and Kidney didn't do that in 2010 and 2011.Lets agree to disagree on that one, I'm sick of mentioning injuries to major players .... doh

[Bart S]

D/L - you talk about DK's great resources over the past couple of seasons but ignore what he actually had at his disposal:- in 2011 he had 2 relatively novice props at international level (one of whom had potential but was still getting some serious doings at scrum time), a hooker rushed back early from injury, a lock (POC) who was also rushed back and nowhere near form, another out of form at provincial level lock, an out of form 9 who played because the alternatives weren't great, ditto at 12 and no recognised fullback available.

Yes, he persisted with Hayes too long IMHO and I didn't understand the logic behind Paddy W AND ROG both being on the bench but for me you have to take the rough with the smooth. (same as McGlock persisting with NOC over IH last season until the former got injured).

That's not to make excuses for the 6 Nations defeats but to point out that considering anything short of a GS as a complete failure last season is just not being realistic.

[darkside lightside]

let me flip the question then; in 2009 we were unbeaten and won a Grand Slam. In the 2 years since we have lost more games than we have won, won no tournaments, our performances have rarely got above mediocre, and there have been some selection issues which are at least questionable.

I'm assuming that at some stage we would all accept that a coach is no longer doing well enough - what would it take for the reflexive Kidney fans to question whether he's the right guy for the job? 3 years losing more than we're winning? 5 years? A wooden spoon at the 6N? Defeat against Italy in the WC?

[Snipe Watson]

let me flip the question then; in 2009 we were unbeaten and won a Grand Slam. In the 2 years since we have lost more games than we have won, won no tournaments, our performances have rarely got above mediocre, and there have been some selection issues which are at least questionable.

I'm assuming that at some stage we would all accept that a coach is no longer doing well enough - what would it take for the reflexive Kidney fans to question whether he's the right guy for the job? 3 years losing more than we're winning? 5 years? A wooden spoon at the 6N? Defeat against Italy in the WC?

DL
I hear what you are saying and factually you are spot on. Personally I don't think the coach is the root of the entire problem. DK is intrinsically conservative and some of selections appear to lean towards reputation rather than form. He goes with a safe option if you like. It think some of our senior players have a case to answer here too. BOD does not always perform and D’Arcy is past his best. We have no good No.9 and POC has rarely been fit for two years. Never underestimate the influence of POC on any team, it is massive and he should IMO be Ireland’s captain. DK is the man for the job and I don’t think anyone else could do much better. Gaffney is a weak link in the coaching setup, but he will be replaced ASAP.

[pwrmoore]

DK is intrinsically conservative and some of selections appear to lean towards reputation rather than form. He goes with a safe option if you like.

Surely the "safe" option is to go with the player who is currently in good form? To pick a player who is out-of-form just because you know that they have skills that aren't currently on show is the riskier option.

[backawaygoonahead]

let me flip the question then; in 2009 we were unbeaten and won a Grand Slam. In the 2 years since we have lost more games than we have won, won no tournaments, our performances have rarely got above mediocre, and there have been some selection issues which are at least questionable.

I'm assuming that at some stage we would all accept that a coach is no longer doing well enough - what would it take for the reflexive Kidney fans to question whether he's the right guy for the job? 3 years losing more than we're winning? 5 years? A wooden spoon at the 6N? Defeat against Italy in the WC?

I'll happily answer that lot for you DL, it wouldn't be taken on the basis of one match during the season so Italy is irrelevant in that respect. He has a contract for 2 more glorious years.

At that point IF there is a suitable alternative the IRFU would be wise to look at alternatives unless he suddenly reels off back to back Grand Slams. He would have done 5 years at that stage so I would think there would also be a danger of staleness which I consider was one of the problems with EOS at the end.

Of course should he have raised the win ratio and integrated a few or more of the nippers about the country replacing him may be considered nonsense. I suspect though that this contract could be his last as Irish coach. I suspect by that time we will have seen a turn over of players and a few coaches such as Conor O'Shea may have advanced their credentials and be fair game for consideration, maybe our man McCall & why not McGlock if Ulster continue to progress.

Of course lots of things could change in the interim, a foreign coach may even be an option although with the exception of Deans I struggle to think of many coaches who are "foreigners" have had much success as a national coach.

In the interim I do not see our results sliding so badly that the IRFU are moved to terminate his contract.

[Snipe Watson]

The dead arose and appeared to many

[Snipe Watson]

DK is intrinsically conservative and some of selections appear to lean towards reputation rather than form. He goes with a safe option if you like.

Surely the "safe" option is to go with the player who is currently in good form? To pick a player who is out-of-form just because you know that they have skills that aren't currently on show is the riskier option.

Sticking with reputation rather than form in the belief that form is temporary ...

[margin walker]

The egomaniac from Bangor will soon be the only one posting here if this keeps up - BaggyTrousers will be arguing with backawaygoonahead <shudder>.
Get your logins mixed up, Dave?
Multiple personality disorder?