2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

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Shan
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Shan » Wed Apr 01, 2015 1:59 pm

Dave wrote:On most polls lib dep have about 8% of the vote. Ukip have around 14%. While that doesn't translate to seats, lib dems popularity has massively sunk and they will lose a sh1tload of seats. Getting into bed with the tories was massively unpopular amongst their voters.

Always will happen to a small party who get into bed with one of the big boys when the economic outlook is bleak....or more correctly when the current economic climate is bleak. The UK is carrying over 1.5 trillion in official national debt and you could add at least the same again for pensions and public service compensation to get the realistic debt figure. That , official number, is over 90% of 2014 GDP and is coming dangerously close to unmanageable levels - For comparison Ireland is at about 98% now, having been over 120% - bad now but was a nightmare situation, especially for low-middle income earners who make up the majority of the electorate. The UK public must be aware of the impending hands in their pockets, to go with the hands already there for the last few years.

Most folk however like the status quo and do not really mind how bad the major two parties are at executing their core functions and deliverables, which in UK terms means having either Cons or Lab as the biggest party and close to an overall majority. Their support levels will fluctuate of course and they will change places every so often but small parties can be demolished easily enough and can spend 10-15 years or more trying to recover, or just shut up shop.


Naturally folk like the KBE and Snipe are immune, to a large extent, from the pickpocketing, though not fully so when it comes to pension entitlements. Govt stealing one's pension is a very annoying thing. Down here we've been going through that for a few years with the pension levy. Tax is legalised robbery to a large extent though you do get some levels of public service in return. Private Pension levy is out and out theft. Any party wishing to steal your private pension should be opposed. Of course you have folk here who think the state should not be allowed to touch their state pension. That's a bit of a laugh when those same folk think it should be open season on other welfare allowances. But folk vote selfishly as much as stupidly. Most folk haven't a notion about politics, never mind economics.
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Snipe Watson » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:13 pm

BaggyTrousers wrote:
Once a Knight wrote:
Snipe Watson wrote:On the basis of today's campaigning, Twas a bad day for the currently, fiscally illiterate Labour party. They really do need to get a coherent economic message together. There is an open goal at one end and they are blasting away at the wrong end of the pitch.
That's the issue. Credible alternative. They aren't. Balls "flatlining" hand gesture every PMQs replaced by ...... God knows.
You two jokers should be hired by George Osborne to say what a wonderful job he is doing and how fiscally competent he is. Somebody needs to because he has missed all the important targets, yet as you do actually get right, Labour are unable to get across the message that the bullshit about him being a competent chancellor is just that, so much so that WW prefers the devil she knows.
And the argument that this has been the slowest economic recovery is going to do the trick? It's economically illiterate nonsense designed to suck in regular Joe voters who have limited understanding of economics and give them a mantra to trot out.
Every recession is unique in its cause and recovery is dependant on a multitude of factors. Trying to compare the timelines of different economic recoveries is total folly.

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Shan » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:20 pm

Snipe Watson wrote: And the argument that this has been the slowest economic recovery is going to do the trick? It's economically illiterate nonsense designed to suck in regular Joe voters who have limited understanding of economics and give them a mantra to trot out.
Every recession is unique in its cause and recovery is dependant on a multitude of factors. Trying to compare the timelines of different economic recoveries is total folly.


Correct Snipe. You have all parties engaging in this type of stuff, especially when in opposition.....or sometimes when in power and still wanting to talk about the previous Govt record. People fall for it, else the parties wouldn't do it.

As said most folk don't have a notion.
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by big mervyn » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:26 pm

The vote for UKIP and other smaller parties may well hold up more than some are expecting in this election. The widely predicted hung parliament could remove some of the fear of letting t'other side in which traditionally sees voters reverting to type on election day.
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2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Wee Woman » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:34 pm

Yep, still don't see any plan from Labour as to how they are going to sort the deficit out (other than throwing more money it as usual). And I very much doubt that Lady Sylvia would throw her in the ring with them either.

You can keep em Baggy .

Edited to add that anyone who thinks the 2 Ed's can hit fiscal targets needs their head read, especially when they are saying they are going to cut things at a much slower pace , that's about the only line they have at present!
Last edited by Wee Woman on Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Snipe Watson » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:36 pm

big mervyn wrote:The vote for UKIP and other smaller parties may well hold up more than some are expecting in this election. The widely predicted hung parliament could remove some of the fear of letting t'other side in which traditionally sees voters reverting to type on election day.
When it comes to the crunch the right wing will return to their spiritual home for the general election. They will vote Tory to keep Labour out. When they look at UKIP they will see a party of protest not of government.
Stick your neck out and call the election Mervyn. I already have....... Tories 305 Lib Dems 30.

ps this thread is going to be good craic for the next few weeks. :D :D :D :D :thumleft:

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by big mervyn » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:54 pm

I'd call it Tories 285 Labour 275, SNP 35 Libs 30
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by BaggyTrousers » Wed Apr 01, 2015 2:58 pm

Snipe Watson wrote:
BaggyTrousers wrote:
Once a Knight wrote:
Snipe Watson wrote:On the basis of today's campaigning, Twas a bad day for the currently, fiscally illiterate Labour party. They really do need to get a coherent economic message together. There is an open goal at one end and they are blasting away at the wrong end of the pitch.
That's the issue. Credible alternative. They aren't. Balls "flatlining" hand gesture every PMQs replaced by ...... God knows.
You two jokers should be hired by George Osborne to say what a wonderful job he is doing and how fiscally competent he is. Somebody needs to because he has missed all the important targets, yet as you do actually get right, Labour are unable to get across the message that the bullshit about him being a competent chancellor is just that, so much so that WW prefers the devil she knows.
And the argument that this has been the slowest economic recovery is going to do the trick? It's economically illiterate nonsense designed to suck in regular Joe voters who have limited understanding of economics and give them a mantra to trot out.
Every recession is unique in its cause and recovery is dependant on a multitude of factors. Trying to compare the timelines of different economic recoveries is total folly.
Where did I say that? If you wish to engage in an argument try addressing something I said rather than making crap up.

I see with some sense of worth that you have made no defence of the Chancer's ....... sorry Chancellor's record of failure to meet targets.

Now at the risk of appearing rude enough to put words in your mouth, you have posted what appears to me to be a remarkably muddled piece of thinking in you last paragraph.

If I accept your premise that every recession is utterly unique, how can you defend a single approach that has missed every significant target it has set for itself?

You are effectively saying that nothing but what has been done can possibly work, or that even if it has been wrong, any different action is doomed. Odd, indeed bloody odd that you feel nothing, absolutely nothing can be learned from any past recession in dealing with this one - "total folly"? We are agreed on the use of those words, if not quite how we apply them.

You don't by any chance teach Economics???? Harrumph.
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Snipe Watson » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:16 pm

You didn't, that was Labour's retort to the Tory news on the economic recovery. I was quoting Ed Balls not you.
Setting targets for economic recovery is not an exact science, it's educated guesswork. You plug as many variables into your calculation as you can and hope it works out. The vagaries of the global economy dictate that. In the same way that Brown and Darling didn't predict the collapse, Osborne has missed his targets for recovery, but he has seen recovery, which was not what Labour were predicting.

The only thing that can be proven or disproven to create a recovery or not is the path that was taken. Labour's plan for recovery remains a hypothesis and nothing more. The Tory plan has worked.
Last edited by Snipe Watson on Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Dave » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:16 pm

Snipe Watson wrote:
Dave wrote:On most polls lib dep have about 8% of the vote. Ukip have around 14%. While that doesn't translate to seats, lib dems popularity has massively sunk and they will lose a sh1tload of seats. Getting into bed with the tories was massively unpopular amongst their voters.
It's early days Dave. I have always thought the proportion of voters who actually decide general elections will go on a bit of a roller-coaster as the parties court them. Tories won round one, but that's it.
My guess is that the question marks over the Eds and the economy will be the deciding factor as people follow their gut in the booth. I don't think they have the smarts or experience to turn this around. Last time, the boot was on the other foot. The Tories should have wiped the floor with Labour, but Cameron didn't have the nous to exploit the situation and ended up with a hollow victory . This time they will be wiser and that will be a telling factor too. Labour have failed to produce a solid economic plan and they needed to. They needed to make a statement saying that they have learned from the mess they left last time and here is how we are going to do it, but instead they have left the door open for the Tories to play the economic card to the full and drag up the past. I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it playing out at this stage.
Based on poll of poll data from the last election until now the lib dems have lost significantly on popularity. They would have a mountain to climb but it is possible I suppose.
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Snipe Watson » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:21 pm

Dave wrote:
Snipe Watson wrote:
Dave wrote:On most polls lib dep have about 8% of the vote. Ukip have around 14%. While that doesn't translate to seats, lib dems popularity has massively sunk and they will lose a sh1tload of seats. Getting into bed with the tories was massively unpopular amongst their voters.
It's early days Dave. I have always thought the proportion of voters who actually decide general elections will go on a bit of a roller-coaster as the parties court them. Tories won round one, but that's it.
My guess is that the question marks over the Eds and the economy will be the deciding factor as people follow their gut in the booth. I don't think they have the smarts or experience to turn this around. Last time, the boot was on the other foot. The Tories should have wiped the floor with Labour, but Cameron didn't have the nous to exploit the situation and ended up with a hollow victory . This time they will be wiser and that will be a telling factor too. Labour have failed to produce a solid economic plan and they needed to. They needed to make a statement saying that they have learned from the mess they left last time and here is how we are going to do it, but instead they have left the door open for the Tories to play the economic card to the full and drag up the past. I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it playing out at this stage.
Based on poll of poll data from the last election until now the lib dems have lost significantly on popularity. They would have a mountain to climb but it is possible I suppose.
Exit polls are the only true indicator. Middle ground voters will flip flop numerous times over the next weeks. Polls are often out of date by the time they are processed and published.

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Snipe Watson » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:43 pm

Once a Knight wrote:Snipe, Baggy - there are a number of factors at play.

Osborne isn't being pilloried over missing targets because there is a broader understanding that (1) there was no money; (2) eurozone has been stagnant; (3) America has struggled; (4) recession has been longer and deeper than predicted.

Genuinely, Osborne gets credit for modifying the path halfway through the term.

Perhaps that "understanding" is why the Tories are experiencing a "voteless recovery"?

You can miss targets in politics provided people understand why but then you don't really get the plaudits either.

Interesting that Ed Balls predicted double dip recession - didn't happen; flat line economy - didn't happen; rampant unemployment in excess of 3 million - didn't happen. Of all the Labour yardsticks for "failure" the Tories have succeeded.

On the economy, I understand the Conservative position. I don't like it, nor necessarily agree with it. But at least I understand it. I genuinely have no idea about what Labour propose and get the sense that they are very disappointed that (1) the economy is the fastest growing in the western democracies; (2) unemployment is down; (3) inflation is low.

Just general musings on my part. Not a unified theory or anything. I can see why there's a recovery without credit but I can't see a credible labour alternative.
Entirely correct.

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Russ » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:47 pm

Wee Woman wrote:Yep, still don't see any plan from Labour as to how they are going to sort the deficit out (other than throwing more money it as usual). And I very much doubt that Lady Sylvia would throw her in the ring with them either.

You can keep em Baggy Image.

Edited to add that anyone who thinks the 2 Ed's can hit fiscal targets needs their head read, especially when they are saying they are going to cut things at a much slower pace Image, that's about the only line they have at present!
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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Russ » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:50 pm

Dave wrote:
Snipe Watson wrote:
Dave wrote:On most polls lib dep have about 8% of the vote. Ukip have around 14%. While that doesn't translate to seats, lib dems popularity has massively sunk and they will lose a sh1tload of seats. Getting into bed with the tories was massively unpopular amongst their voters.
It's early days Dave. I have always thought the proportion of voters who actually decide general elections will go on a bit of a roller-coaster as the parties court them. Tories won round one, but that's it.
My guess is that the question marks over the Eds and the economy will be the deciding factor as people follow their gut in the booth. I don't think they have the smarts or experience to turn this around. Last time, the boot was on the other foot. The Tories should have wiped the floor with Labour, but Cameron didn't have the nous to exploit the situation and ended up with a hollow victory . This time they will be wiser and that will be a telling factor too. Labour have failed to produce a solid economic plan and they needed to. They needed to make a statement saying that they have learned from the mess they left last time and here is how we are going to do it, but instead they have left the door open for the Tories to play the economic card to the full and drag up the past. I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it playing out at this stage.
Based on poll of poll data from the last election until now the lib dems have lost significantly on popularity. They would have a mountain to climb but it is possible I suppose.
You can be as unpopular as a clan member at a martin luther king memorial, but popularity doesn't determine government

You could be polling at 60% but lose all your marginals and not form a government

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Re: 2015 - The General Election - Discussion Forum

Post by Dave » Wed Apr 01, 2015 3:54 pm

Russ wrote:
Dave wrote:
Snipe Watson wrote:
Dave wrote:On most polls lib dep have about 8% of the vote. Ukip have around 14%. While that doesn't translate to seats, lib dems popularity has massively sunk and they will lose a sh1tload of seats. Getting into bed with the tories was massively unpopular amongst their voters.
It's early days Dave. I have always thought the proportion of voters who actually decide general elections will go on a bit of a roller-coaster as the parties court them. Tories won round one, but that's it.
My guess is that the question marks over the Eds and the economy will be the deciding factor as people follow their gut in the booth. I don't think they have the smarts or experience to turn this around. Last time, the boot was on the other foot. The Tories should have wiped the floor with Labour, but Cameron didn't have the nous to exploit the situation and ended up with a hollow victory . This time they will be wiser and that will be a telling factor too. Labour have failed to produce a solid economic plan and they needed to. They needed to make a statement saying that they have learned from the mess they left last time and here is how we are going to do it, but instead they have left the door open for the Tories to play the economic card to the full and drag up the past. I could be totally wrong, but that's how I see it playing out at this stage.
Based on poll of poll data from the last election until now the lib dems have lost significantly on popularity. They would have a mountain to climb but it is possible I suppose.
You can be as unpopular as a clan member at a martin luther king memorial, but popularity doesn't determine government

You could be polling at 60% but lose all your marginals and not form a government
Correct, which is why I said it doesn't translate into seats. Considering ukip are at 14% and will be lucky to get 1 seat. I'm just demonstrating that the lib dems have fallen a lot.
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