Referendum

[Bart S]

The Bel Tel have a poll about polls. Not very scientific, but it does suggest that there may be some appetite for one.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/ ... 97987.html

The secretarys of state and the DUP keep saying there is no evidence of a demand for a border poll but they don't seem too inclined to look for any.

Someone should send that poll to Arlene and Ian "famous cos o' me da" Paisley.

[Bart S]

I see Theresa is already saying after a week in the job that Article 50 won't be invoked this year. i wonder how her Brexit minister feels about delivering on his view that it should he invoked this year or by early next year at the latest. I certainly wouldn't be betting on early next year for it right now.

Looks like significant cuts to immigration levels remains a long term aspiration with no commitment as to when this can be achieved, despite the UK presumably having free control on labour movement from inside and outside the EU once Brexit is delivered.

[Snipe Watson]

Scotland will no doubt apply for membership of a failing EU only after the UK leaves and only if it is allowed to hold another referendum in which it then chooses ti leave....

That is a long way off and who know whether the UK will be a third world country by then or falling over themselves with international fre trade deals. ..

What could be interesting is today's call by Edna that a border poll might be on the cards. Everyone holds an Ace or two in this game the Republics is that all 26/27 members must agree to the UKs final agreement so what if they hold that agreement unless a border poll is given..

Wise up Cockers. The Republic don't actually want us. They are more likely to block the deal unless there is a legally binding agreement not to have a border poll.

Interested to know the evidence for your assertion about this, Snipe. Not necessarily saying you're wrong but wondering when they actually said anything on the subject, especially over the last few years.

Just good old common sense Rocky. Who in their right mind would want us? Starry eyed dreams of an idyllic nation once again set to one side, NI is a bottomless pit for throwing money into. The 26 would be poorer if they had us and the 6 would be poorer if we had them. I'm a small u Unionist and identify myself as Irish. I have no empathy for England or Wales, but they are better fit to pay our bills than the 26. I have no time for tub thumping, sloganising or made up statistics designed to push an agenda.
I'm selfish and unapologetically want the best deal for me

ps Ignore Bagpuss. I'm guessing he forgot his hat, got his napper burned and it's starting to itch. I've no evidence for this either.....

[mikerob]

The Brexit vote demonstrated that people don't necessarily vote purely based on rational economic grounds. If there was a border poll, the "leave" and "remain" sides would be as creative as their counterparts in the EU referendum when it comes to coming up with arguments to support their position, probably more so...

[Snipe Watson]

The Brexit vote demonstrated that people don't necessarily vote purely based on rational economic grounds. If there was a border poll, the "leave" and "remain" sides would be as creative as their counterparts in the EU referendum when it comes to coming up with arguments to support their position, probably more so...

Probably more spurious arguments though. There isn't the same depth of Machiavellian talent over here.

[mikerob]

The Brexit vote demonstrated that people don't necessarily vote purely based on rational economic grounds. If there was a border poll, the "leave" and "remain" sides would be as creative as their counterparts in the EU referendum when it comes to coming up with arguments to support their position, probably more so...

Probably more spurious arguments though. There isn't the same depth of Machiavellian talent over here.

I'd expect the entire thing to be based upon the usual usuns vs themmuns tribal argument. Even spurious economic claims may not get a look in.

The interesting thing would be how many previously small u unionists and people who while not being unionists, were at least reasonably content with the status quo, would be sufficiently hacked off with Westminster to vote for a united Ireland.

Or whether if push comes to shove, the whole thing will divide upon sectarian lines.

[Russ]

I expect the IRA to run a positive campaign and the DUP to run a negative one

[rocky]

The thing is, Mike, that no-one really knows, although I do suspect that Snipe's gut feeling is probably correct (and there is no doubt that he's right about the economics of NI).
Sadly, I also think your final sentence is likely to be the over-arching case made by both sides.
Mind you, I think there is at least a case to be made for suggesting that a united Ireland (probably some kind of federal solution) could do well after an initial period that would be very difficult.
If Scotland goes and we are left with England and West England, our prospects will be truly frightening.
If they are already saying that they probably can't cover the money from the EU to the North-East of England, what chance is there that they will come close to matching the single farm payment, for example, let alone all the other money coming in from the EU.
If I were a North Antrim farmer, I would already be thinking that my no vote was a bit of a blunder.
Of course, I hope that I'm wrong..............

[big mervyn]

I expect the IRA to run a positive campaign and the DUP to run a negative one

The DUP have done more than anyone this last few months to further a United Ireland.

A bit like Snipe, I always felt British and Irish. Never, never, never Northern Irish. That changed a bit after Brexit. Heart says Irish but the head remains to be convinced. I'd have a genuine dilemma if there was a border poll the marra.

[Snipe Watson]

Depends on the pitch Mervyn.
If there was a genuine political will in ROI to actively pursue a single state solution, a Dublin government could create a decent case for a "New Ireland" rather than a "United Ireland". I feel in the next 15 years or so, we will enter a time frame where small u Unionists could be persuadable. The package would have to be cleverly put together with a clear effort being made to deal with the herd of elephants in the room. A merger rather than a takeover if you like.
So much of what exists currently is tainted and for many beyond the point where it could ever be accepted. All the flags and anthems and associated baggage would have to go. Constitutional and economic change would be needed. It could be done, if there is the political will. As with all things, language would be making or breaking of it.

[rocky]

Depends on the pitch Mervyn.
If there was a genuine political will in ROI to actively pursue a single state solution, a Dublin government could create a decent case for a "New Ireland" rather than a "United Ireland". I feel in the next 15 years or so, we will enter a time frame where small u Unionists could be persuadable. The package would have to be cleverly put together with a clear effort being made to deal with the herd of elephants in the room. A merger rather than a takeover if you like.
So much of what exists currently is tainted and for many beyond the point where it could ever be accepted. All the flags and anthems and associated baggage would have to go. Constitutional and economic change would be needed. It could be done, if there is the political will. As with all things, language would be making or breaking of it.

A serious for that, Snipe.

[Rooster]

A vote now on the border would be another Brexit style vote with no one knowing what financial implications it would have for us or ROI, it's going to be interesting how both the UK, ROI and EU actually sort out the huge potential problem that has been created on the island of Ireland

[BR]

The criteria for joining the EU are well established and documented so it isn't a question if the EU would "want" Scotland, if they meet the criteria then why shouldn't they join?

If they are prepared to let in Montenegro as long as they meet the criteria, then why not Scotland?

Unless the EU come up with new criteria, like "No more than 5% of the population to have name beginning with Mac or Mc" and "countries that eat haggis and deep fried mars bars or drink whisky or irn bru are automatically excluded".

Criteria and conditions can be manipulated; things can be made more/less attractive. Framany may feel obliged to admit the Scots, but that does not mean they'll feel welcome when they get there. Queue another 300 years of avoiding integration.

[Cockatrice]

The thing is, Mike, that no-one really knows, although I do suspect that Snipe's gut feeling is probably correct (and there is no doubt that he's right about the economics of NI).
Sadly, I also think your final sentence is likely to be the over-arching case made by both sides.
Mind you, I think there is at least a case to be made for suggesting that a united Ireland (probably some kind of federal solution) could do well after an initial period that would be very difficult.
If Scotland goes and we are left with England and West England, our prospects will be truly frightening.
If they are already saying that they probably can't cover the money from the EU to the North-East of England, what chance is there that they will come close to matching the single farm payment, for example, let alone all the other money coming in from the EU.
If I were a North Antrim farmer, I would already be thinking that my no vote was a bit of a blunder.
Of course, I hope that I'm wrong..............

rocky.. maybe HM The Queen could give up her £450,000 yearly CAP payment and donate it.. could at least pull a couple of those North Antrim farmers out of a hole..

[Shan]

Just good old common sense Rocky. Who in their right mind would want us? Starry eyed dreams of an idyllic nation once again set to one side, NI is a bottomless pit for throwing money into. The 26 would be poorer if they had us and the 6 would be poorer if we had them. I'm a small u Unionist and identify myself as Irish. I have no empathy for England or Wales, but they are better fit to pay our bills than the 26. I have no time for tub thumping, sloganising or made up statistics designed to push an agenda.
I'm selfish and unapologetically want the best deal for me

ps Ignore Bagpuss. I'm guessing he forgot his hat, got his napper burned and it's starting to itch. I've no evidence for this either.....

I think if there was a vote it would result in a yes down here. There's still enough folk who like the idea of a united Ireland and wouldn't think of the economic questions and there's a huge amount who wouldn't care one way or the other so wouldn't bother their árses voting.

One thing though - I can understand why such a fine people as the English are in a position to foot the bill but what in the feck use are the Welsh in that regard. Shur the only money they have is what the English give them as pocket money.