Coronavirus 2020 - What can I do?

[Kofi Annan]

99.7 % chance of survival if you catch this dam lurgy, a lot of big girls fannies out there, let’s isolate the vulnerable not the fecking healthy. Well except that Cnut HWM, isolate him for life .

[Bobbievee]

And what did His Worshipful Master say to deserve this?

[rumncoke]

Bobby the rush to get the economy going has SFA to do with a Tory Government being in league with Big Business --

And regardless of who was in government the rush would be the same

The F'n Government like every other Government need the F'n Taxes.

[big mervyn]

99.7 % chance of survival if you catch this dam lurgy, a lot of big girls fannies out there, let’s isolate the vulnerable not the fecking healthy. Well except that Cnut HWM, isolate him for life .

Probably a bit less that 99.7% but I largely agree with that. Shield the vulnerable, practice hygiene and social distancing, introduce testing and tracking and try to get on with everything else. It's worked for the Swedes who have a death rate lower than the UK and comparable to Ireland with the plus of a significant acquired herd immunity.

[rumncoke]

You forget that the 99% survival rate is at a cost and even those who have survived some of them have been extremely ill .

The problem is really public transport --- exposed to this virus for any length of time and you are extremely ill -- any length being over 15 minutes.

[big mervyn]

You forget that the 99% survival rate is at a cost and even those who have survived some of them have been extremely ill .

The problem is really public transport --- exposed to this virus for any length of time and you are extremely ill -- any length being over 15 minutes.

I was exposed to it 24/7 for 2 weeks and didn't get a single symptom.

[Amiga500]

99.7 % chance of survival if you catch this dam lurgy, a lot of big girls fannies out there, let’s isolate the vulnerable not the fecking healthy. Well except that Cnut HWM, isolate him for life .

Probably a bit less that 99.7% but I largely agree with that. Shield the vulnerable, practice hygiene and social distancing, introduce testing and tracking and try to get on with everything else. It's worked for the Swedes who have a death rate lower than the UK and comparable to Ireland with the plus of a significant acquired herd immunity.

Sweden has a much more distributed population as well as less social interaction. (compare the percentage of single occupant houses)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/526 ... s-by-type/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/961 ... k-by-type/

One size certainly doesn't fir all in this.

Sweden also has a significantly higher death rate as a result compared to its neighbours.

[big mervyn]

99.7 % chance of survival if you catch this dam lurgy, a lot of big girls fannies out there, let’s isolate the vulnerable not the fecking healthy. Well except that Cnut HWM, isolate him for life .

Probably a bit less that 99.7% but I largely agree with that. Shield the vulnerable, practice hygiene and social distancing, introduce testing and tracking and try to get on with everything else. It's worked for the Swedes who have a death rate lower than the UK and comparable to Ireland with the plus of a significant acquired herd immunity.

Sweden has a much more distributed population as well as less social interaction. (compare the percentage of single occupant houses)

https://www.statista.com/statistics/526 ... s-by-type/
https://www.statista.com/statistics/961 ... k-by-type/

One size certainly doesn't fir all in this.

Sweden also has a significantly higher death rate as a result compared to its neighbours.

Probably comparable in population distribution (and certainly in death rate) to the island of Ireland. I was supposed to be in Sweden round about now as it happens.

Anyway, the virus hasn't gone away you know. It's lying in wait for those countries that have successfully hidden their entire population.

[Amiga500]

Probably comparable in population distribution (and certainly in death rate) to the island of Ireland. I was supposed to be in Sweden round about now as it happens.

Swedish population density: 23 people/km2
ROI population density: 70 people/km2

Stockholm population density: 8,685 people/km2
Dublin population density: 12,070 people/km2

Probably comparable iAnyway, the virus hasn't gone away you know. It's lying in wait for those countries that have successfully hidden their entire population.

Its estimated that the UK might have an exposure of 0.25% so far.

The Swedes think they have exposed nearly 30% of Stockholm. Fanciful at best I think:

https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/worl ... 031536001/

Tegnell: We are doing two major investigations. We may have those results this week or a bit later in May. We know from modeling and some data we have already – these data are a little uncertain – that we probably had a transmission peak in Stockholm a couple of weeks ago, which means that we are probably hitting the peak of infections right about now. We think that up to 25% of people in Stockholm have been exposed to coronavirus and are possibly immune. A recent survey from one of our hospitals in Stockholm found that 27% of staff there are immune. We think that most of those are immune from transmission in society, not the workplace. We could reach herd immunity in Stockholm within a matter of weeks.

Given we've seen elsewhere across the world infection rates in hospital staff are far above the general population, how he draws that conclusion is beyond me. They aren't testing sufficiently to verify their projections. From my own line of work, unverified models aren't worth sh!t.

I have to admit though, 3700 deaths over a quarter of Stockholm's population of 1.6m is 0.9%. Over a quarter of the entire Swedish population it is 0.14%. The latter is stretching a bit, but the former is definitely at the bounds of believable.


However, setting that aside for a second, their economy is cratering anyway. So they have lost 3-4x the number of people as their neighbours for nothing.

https://www.ft.com/content/22302f60-95f ... 9244625ac4

The European Commission forecast this month that Sweden, Denmark and Finland’s economies will all contract by around 6 per cent this year; Sweden was forecast to end up with higher unemployment, and a faster increase, than its two neighbours. Some businesses that have stayed open warn social distancing makes it hard to make money. Volvo Cars and Volvo Trucks have both suffered weeks-long interruptions thanks to supply chain problems elsewhere in Europe.

[Jackie Brown]

Its estimated that the UK might have an exposure of 0.25% so far.

Who estimates that?

0.25% of 67 million is 167,500
CONFIRMED, POSITIVE UK TESTS, 247,000...
That's only tests done in hospitals. They don't even bother to test most care home suspected cases.

Death rate is estimated to be around 1% going by recent antibody studies in Spain and also the Diamond Princess cruise ship back in March.

A fair estimation is 60,000 deaths in UK so far. Extrapolate that up gives 6million cases or around 9% of population with exposure.

Now consider death rates lag about 3 weeks behind new infections... Also, different regions in UK have been affected at different rates. London has had far more infections, earlier in the pandemic than NI or Cornwall for example. I would not be surprised if we saw antibodies in upwards of 20% possibly 25% of the London population.

[rumncoke]

In my opinion there is no point in comparing infection rates in counties because no two countries are exactly the same eg London has possibly 3 of busiest airports in Europe and air travel and traveller spread after arrival would account for the early peaks in london an later peaks around the country.

Similarly the death rates in the UK could reflect the fact that the vulnerable elderly ( over 80s ) are collected into homes which frequently have common rooms and set time dining in dining rooms etc so once a home becomes infected the spread and lethal nature of the disease becomes distorted.Again many of the residents may have elected to be DNR thus transfer to hospital would be pointless plus there is the delay between exposure and symptoms which delays and renders isolation in such places rather ineffectual.

The similarly every country will have a variety of factors which affect the infection rate and death rate which are unique to that country never mind the differences in how the statistics are collected.

[big mervyn]

People are reluctant to say this, but death is a merciful releases for anyone unfortunate enough to be in the nursing wing of a care home. The majority live a miserable existance.

[Fintan]

People are reluctant to say this, but death is a merciful releases for anyone unfortunate enough to be in the nursing wing of a care home. The majority live a miserable existance.

In my own personal experience I would agree with Big Merv.

[rumncoke]

Merv

There are good homes and bad homes and most homes do their best for their residents but the quality of life is not so much a reflection of their efforts but the physical and mental condition of the residents my father was in one the staff were great but in the end all his food was bland and had to be nearly liquidised because he could hardly swallow .

Yes for many in such homes life becomes rather joyless and self demeaning.

[Jackie Brown]

Its estimated that the UK might have an exposure of 0.25% so far.

Who estimates that?

0.25% of 67 million is 167,500
CONFIRMED, POSITIVE UK TESTS, 247,000...
That's only tests done in hospitals. They don't even bother to test most care home suspected cases.

Death rate is estimated to be around 1% going by recent antibody studies in Spain and also the Diamond Princess cruise ship back in March.

A fair estimation is 60,000 deaths in UK so far. Extrapolate that up gives 6million cases or around 9% of population with exposure.

Now consider death rates lag about 3 weeks behind new infections... Also, different regions in UK have been affected at different rates. London has had far more infections, earlier in the pandemic than NI or Cornwall for example. I would not be surprised if we saw antibodies in upwards of 20% possibly 25% of the London population.

ONS now saying 55,000 deaths by beginning of May. So probably 80,000 is a more fair estimate. That gives around 8 million cases in UK. UK population just under 67,000,000. Percentage exposed, 12%