The UAFC

Jackie Brown wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 1:00 am

Amiga500 wrote: ↑Mon May 18, 2020 10:09 pm Its estimated that the UK might have an exposure of 0.25% so far.

Who estimates that?

0.25% of 67 million is 167,500
CONFIRMED, POSITIVE UK TESTS, 247,000...
That's only tests done in hospitals. They don't even bother to test most care home suspected cases.

Death rate is estimated to be around 1% going by recent antibody studies in Spain and also the Diamond Princess cruise ship back in March.

A fair estimation is 60,000 deaths in UK so far. Extrapolate that up gives 6million cases or around 9% of population with exposure.

Now consider death rates lag about 3 weeks behind new infections... Also, different regions in UK have been affected at different rates. London has had far more infections, earlier in the pandemic than NI or Cornwall for example. I would not be surprised if we saw antibodies in upwards of 20% possibly 25% of the London population.

Hmm, good question. I read it somewhere but didn't give it further thought. My bad (obviously).

Can't argue with your reasoning.



edit: I think it would have come (probably 2nd or 3rd hand) from here:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... d21may2020

Based on tests conducted between 4 May and 17 May 2020, we estimate 137,000 people in England had COVID-19
Our latest estimates indicate that at any given time during the two weeks from 4 May to 17 May 2020, an average of 137,000 people in England had the coronavirus (COVID-19) (95% confidence interval: 85,000 to 208,000). This equates to 0.25% (95% confidence interval: 0.16% to 0.38%) of the population in England. This estimate is based on tests performed on 14,599 people in 7,054 households./quote]

That's for testing positive with the virus at a particular moment in time. Not for antibodies.

I wasn't far off with my estimate.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-05-21/hea ... onference/

So Dom Cummings survives.
I wonder how the lady doctor who was the Scottish CMO feels about this.
And Prof Ferguson.
Double standards?

Give it time, this has a while to go yet.

The English deserve those two cnuts.

Thanks very much.

They've done more for a United Ireland than the Shinners ever have.

If you idiots don't know the difference between one man's emergency and a trip to a second home , the circumstances are totally different. the rules ? never have been explicit they are for guidance of wise men and the obedience of fools ,Lorry Drivers drive longer distances everyday -- ah you say but it's their job -- ah I say he considered it was his emergency .

One man's trip is an other man's emergency . As a father I more than likely would do the same if I considered I had to.

My Son-in Law and Daughter drove close to 60 miles to attend to a family emergency and I'm glad they did.

If I'd been Boris last night I would have asked the Tele media? press exactly what the hell makes Dom Cummings more important than how we progress out of Lockdown .

Because --which is ? -- because come out of we have to at some time -- because No Government cannot continue to borrow money indefinitely . Be Labour Conservative or Chinese -- we live by the labour of our hands .

And Retail and Hospitality etc are some of the secondary forms of employment and second incomes of many families the difference between poverty and survival .

rumncoke wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 5:03 am If you idiots don't know the difference between one man's emergency and a trip to a second home , the circumstances are totally different.

That is true, but at least they were not infected, or at least, not aware they were infected.

Yesterday was just a contemptuous insult to the nation's intelligence - an absolute tissue of lies spun to fit the known facts and transparently obvious even to those whose eyesight has been cruelly blighted by coronavirus. The man lies for a living. Is this really the best he could come up with after a whole weekend to concoct a plausible story?

Boris has surrounded himself with an odious cabal of self serving, nauseating duplicitous cnuts, the likes of which, we haven't seen since Thatcher was in power.

Come on BM -- Who do ITV bring on for an impartial view of the situation

Allister Campbell --" Mr Dodgy Dossier" -- pot kettle/kettle pot

How was anyone exposed by a man in a car with those who had already been in his company for a number of days before his infection was confirmed.

At least hundreds of millions of pounds have not been waste due to his actions.

and don't come back with the costs of Brexit please -- he may have agreed with it he may have tried to persuade others to agree with him -- nothing wrong with that -- the fact is the country voted 3 times to get out of Europe and the fact that Boris is in No 10 being down to a mischievous Labour Party pretending to be in agreement with the will of the people and then blocking every attempt to implement the will of the electorate .

rumncoke wrote: ↑Tue May 26, 2020 12:28 pm Come on BM -- Who do ITV bring on for an impartial view of the situation

Allister Campbell --" Mr Dodgy Dossier" -- pot kettle/kettle pot

.

You could argue that Campbell is possibly best placed to commemt on the spin coming out of No 10. Personally I have no time for him or ITV but his is only one voice out of many.

The Daily Heil and the likes of arch Brexiteer MPs Steve Baker and Peter Bone can hardly be accused of trying to grind that particular axe.

Are you seriously saying that you believe that flim flam yesterday?

A "Dominic Cummings" is now a golf term.
It's a really long drive that goes way out of bounds but there's no penalty.

The ball is in a temporary hazard in the Ryder Cup and ruling depends on which team you're supporting because nobody has defined it hazard in the first place .

Me -- i don't like witch hunts !!!!

A Maradona goal -- or for the Irish a Henry goal -- its history and you can't change it

Yeah Rum and the death of 6 million Jews is in the past and nothing can be done about now. So let's stop all this vilification of Adolf Hitler and give him the credit he deserves for Volkswagen Beetles and the autobahns.

Gary

I take exception to that highly racist remark to compare genocide to a car ride to seek assistance is one hell of a jump

Have you ever gone to Auschwitz it is the ultimate example of incremental policy making.

Cummings is just the embodiment of Animal Farm ( he who makes the rules can break the rules regardless of creed ,party or colour ) and the truth that rules are made for obedience of fools and the guidance of wise men . As i pointed out lorry drivers have been driving over 300 miles daily since the start of lockdown.

Provided Cummings and his passengers never got out of the car between the start and finish of their journey or broke the rules of social distancing to the point of avoiding any contact at all at any casual necessary stop I fail to see what risk they created to anybody.

The guy wasn't going to so some protest meeting barbecue or leaving a trail of infected litter in the countryside.