SUFTUM_19 wrote:Thelaw wrote: ↑Tue Jan 30, 2024 2:48 pm
I think the more worrying part of the report is that we are doing this as part of a cost cutting exercise. That means there will be no big money NIQ replacement. Or I think any replacement at all. If the Leinster players were moving they would go to Munster, just like carberry, though that was a lucky miss. It looks like we have been told no by Dublin, they are going to support the 3 southern teams first and we can make do and mend. There is definitely some dead wood, Addison has been woeful for example. Maybe a season with kids coming through wouldn't be the worst if we can get are heads around it. But management changes are nessecary
Judging by the rumour that we are prepared to offload our starting 10 to save money, with no real sign of a replacement, there is absolutely no chance we are in a position to afford to release coaches from their contracts a year early, so whilst I do agree that management changes are necessary, I don’t think it’s possible and we’re just going to have to stick it out for the next season and a half. It makes the whole plastic pitch decision even more confusing if finances are as bad as they seem to be.
I think that the cost-cutting / budget angle is being over-played a bit. All of the provincial branches run at a loss and require subsidy from the centre in one form or another. I think some people lose sight of the fact that Ulster (and the other provinces) “are” the IRFU, not some independent third party. Every professional player in Ireland is contracted with the IRFU. The system of central contracting and player recharges is supposed to incentivise production of international players but ultimately all player costs are borne by the IRFU.
This gives the IRFU (by which I mean the D4 management cadre) a great deal of leverage over the provincial flunkies. When is a CEO not a CEO? Answer when he is “CEO” of a province. The provincial CEO is in effect a local ops manager.
So I don’t think it’s correct framing to say that Ulster are in a fire sale because of budgetary pressure - although it is true that across the board in Ireland, rugby in general is under increased budgetary pressure in the last couple of years. There will likely be belt tightening around the fringes of the squad, and more recourse to academies in all 4 provinces, but it’s absolutely not in the IRFU’s interests to let Ulster go to the wall because they can’t “afford” an out-half!
As for Billy, I’ve heard it said that it’s not so much that he isn’t being renewed, more that he’s keen to see what’s out there, which is fair enough. There would be big pressure on Leinster to move on one of their 10s - I reckon they would dig their heels in on Prendergast, and I don’t think they’d be keen to lose Frawley because of his quality and versatility. I reckon if push came to shove they might prefer to keep Ross Byrne and let Harry go. Harry was superb at u-20 level but with injuries and lack of opportunities has struggled to get any kind of run going at Leinster. Ulster would be a good move for him. We’ll see..
Going back to the IRFU’s leverage - while I think the budget piece is over-played, they need as close to all 4 provinces threatening home knock-out games etc as possible, and it’s abundantly clear that Dan is at sea. I would agree that coming up with a compromise agreement and paying him off wouldn’t be likely, on top of the recent financial shambles - but sacking him for performance-related reasons, if possible, would not entail a pay-out… also I know that on at least one occasion HR had to step in because of some of Dan’s behaviours - another potential avenue to terminating a contract?
My own guess is that neither Petrie nor McFarland will be about the place come the start of next season…