Referendum

[BaggyTrousers]

People of my age live in a world where we will be burdened by funding our parents' generation's pensions, for example. Yet people of that generation keep voting for themselves, for their triple locks and free bus passes.

Blame needs to be attached to politicians who hand out the bribes in the first place... In London, for example, there is free transport for 60+ residents but at that age, about 85% of people are still working AND they are on average wealthier than younger age groups,

All the transport pass does is subsidise commuting to work for people who can afford it anyway but woe betide the politician who tries to increase the age limit.

The person who introduced it in the first place? Some bloke called Boris Johnson.

Feck off you two, I didn't fight two world wars so you could stop me having an occasional freebie on NI Railways. The bloody cheek of it. oh and aren't those tv licenses expensive too, dearie, nothing but rubbish on, though I do like CoronXfactorsgotfeckalltalent. Is it pension day then? Where did I leave my teeth? Nurse!

[Jackie Brown]

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[Neil F]

1) older people should not have a vote or their vote should be diminished. They have as much right to have a say in our fitire as young people. I heard a young guy complaining about Brexit at work the other day and he didn't even vote. Hard for me to have sympathy with him.

Also, we didn't hear many complaints about this in elections before. The only time i heard it was from some scottish independence supporters and i disagree with them about it as i do on here now.

What i do think however is that as Labour candidate Owen Smith said, there is a case for a referendum when the final Brexit deal is negotiated given that we don't yet know what Brexit looks like and whether it is what people thought they had voted for.

Bart, on the latter part I agree with you strongly - not least because much of the negotiating power lies with 27 other governments in Europe... Let's face it, a fairly hefty proportion of Leavers didn't vote as they did to maintain free movement of people, for example. By a similar token, though, one could make a similar argument about a general election. A vote to leave was not a vote for a change of PM (especially not for one who deliberately dragged her feet on the issue), nor for a cabinet filled with leavers... It was a vote to leave the EU. If people chose their vote aimed at delivering the former (or indeed currently hold the belief that this is what they voted for) it's only further evidence (were it needed) that referendums aren't fit for purpose.

On the first point, though, I disagree. I think it's a little disingenuous to say that this issue hasn't been raised before. It has been and was discussed in depth in the run into the referendum. Second of all because very few other elections have been about change that is permanent and essentially irreversible, I can see why it was this referendum that triggered a more widespread conversation. I can think of literally no other vote in the entirety of the UK where people actually voted for a permanent change (the previous EU referendum may be an analogue but as this year shows (and the fact that the "Europe" question never really went away, that wasn't entirely "permanent"). Ditto the AV vote - had AV won, it could have easily been retracted with another vote, or even a parliamentary decision... Few votes are permanent - the parliament is replaced at least every five years, for example. Most referendums are conducted under the auspices that a vote to maintain the status quo can again be challenged in the future.

When voting in a new parliament, the proportion of the population not expected to see the end of that parliament is typically significantly less than the winning margin, for example. In those votes, age therefore doesn't really matter and certainly shouldn't as such a vast proportion of those voting will have to deal with the full consequences of their decision. That is not the case for Brexit. Some people will have to live significantly longer with their decision (or in the case of most young people, the decisions of others) than others. Some people will bear significantly more costs from this result than others. When it comes to making changes that have an immeasurably larger impact on young people than old people, and certainly will have a much longer-term impact on the average teenager than the average pensioner, I don't think it's right to say that everyone has the same stake in the future. They don't. An 18 year-old's future will be significantly differently impacted by Brexit than an 88 year old's. When the aggregate of individual decisions impact one group significantly more than others, I don't see the problem with arguing that the election mechanism itself should also reflect that. This is not an argument about sidelining people over particular age thresholds or about suggesting people of different ages are more or less capable of rational thought. It is a reflection that some people have a lot more to lose from this decision than others and that this was something that was not reflected in either the remain or leave campaigns, nor in the design of the vote itself.

[mikerob]

I saw a hypothetical analysis that based upon usual mortality rates and assuming people didn't change how they voted, the remain vote would have a majority in 2021 based upon the number of older leave voters dieing during the next few years.

Of course this is purely hypothetical as people do change how they vote.

[BaggyTrousers]

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Interesting Jackie that under existing legislation due to come into force in the autumn, Hunt can declare the Junior Doctors not to have rejected the contract as the feckless who didn't vote are added to those who accept giving 61 % acceptance. As a double lock to make make the rejection valid another 11% would have needed to reject it to make in excess of 50% of eligible voters.

Maybe those Orange clowns who carried a banner saying "democracy doesn't work" weren't as dumb as I thought.

[pwrmoore]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

[mikerob]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

However if Westminster invokes Article 50 to formally start exit negotiations then that will apply to Scotland as well.

If the Scots vote for independence prior to the conclusion of the Article 50 negotiations, then they may say, "well we want to stop Article 50 negotiations for oor wee bit" and as I understand it, the rest if the rest of the EU agrees, the negotiations could stop applying to Scotland but it strikes me as a legal nightmare as it may mean going back to renegotiate then entire thing again...

If the Scots vote for independence after Article 50 negotiations conclude, then I assume they would need to apply for EU membership although again with agreement of EU members maybe this could be fast tracked given that Scotland is recently departed rather than a brand new applicant. Although the Spanish may not be keen to discourage their own regions from buggering off. The whole thing is so unprecedented that I don't think anyone knows what will happen.

[Snipe Watson]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

Well, when we are talking about the EU, never say never. Anything is possible in Europe, they didn't invent fudge, but they brought it to a whole new level. The problem would be getting everyone to agree to treat Scotland as a separate entity. I cannot see consensus being reached on this. Spain in particular have their issues with Catalans and Basques. France too. If the prize was bigger that Scotland, there would be more incentive to cobble something together, but why would the EU want Scotland? Their oil is nearly gone. Any sort of objective cost benefit analysis is unlikely to favour Scotland.
Nicola Sturgeon is quare craic. She never misses an opportunity to self-aggrandise. She's now hinting that she has a veto on Brexit.
“I think we are in a very strong position. That is a position that I am going to use as well as I can.”

This amused me.

[Cockatrice]

By the time we exit and that means the UK as a whole I am not convinced that wanting to get back in would be wholly attractive...

[Snipe Watson]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

However if Westminster invokes Article 50 to formally start exit negotiations then that will apply to Scotland as well.

If the Scots vote for independence prior to the conclusion of the Article 50 negotiations, then they may say, "well we want to stop Article 50 negotiations for oor wee bit" and as I understand it, the rest if the rest of the EU agrees, the negotiations could stop applying to Scotland but it strikes me as a legal nightmare as it may mean going back to renegotiate then entire thing again...

If the Scots vote for independence after Article 50 negotiations conclude, then I assume they would need to apply for EU membership although again with agreement of EU members maybe this could be fast tracked given that Scotland is recently departed rather than a brand new applicant. Although the Spanish may not be keen to discourage their own regions from buggering off. The whole thing is so unprecedented that I don't think anyone knows what will happen.

All correct Mike.
I think there is no chance of Westminster granting Indie2 while we are in the throes of an Article 50 run in.
Scotland would walk straight back into the EU if they vote to leave the UK post Brexit. Much less problematic that trying to get some sort of special treatment while still part of the UK.

[Snipe Watson]

By the time we exit and that means the UK as a whole I am not convinced that wanting to get back in would be wholly attractive...

That's another good point Cockers. By the time all of this is concluded would Scotland want to join the EU?

[mikerob]

If the Scots vote for independence, there will be no issue with the EU recognising it as an independent entity, the question will be what rules apply to it and how long the process takes.

Montenegro voted for independence from Serbia in May 2006 and negotiations to join the EU started a few months later. This process has taken a long time because Montenegro was a long way from meeting EU requirements for a whole list of things, from the legal system to the banking system. Scotland will be a lot closer.

The interesting thing would be if Scotland voted for independence prior to the conclusion of Article 50 negotiations as they may then be able to claim that as they have inherited the UK's treaty obligations, they can then cancel their part of the Article 50 application but the whole situation would be so unprecedented that nobody knows.

[mikerob]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

However if Westminster invokes Article 50 to formally start exit negotiations then that will apply to Scotland as well.

If the Scots vote for independence prior to the conclusion of the Article 50 negotiations, then they may say, "well we want to stop Article 50 negotiations for oor wee bit" and as I understand it, the rest if the rest of the EU agrees, the negotiations could stop applying to Scotland but it strikes me as a legal nightmare as it may mean going back to renegotiate then entire thing again...

If the Scots vote for independence after Article 50 negotiations conclude, then I assume they would need to apply for EU membership although again with agreement of EU members maybe this could be fast tracked given that Scotland is recently departed rather than a brand new applicant. Although the Spanish may not be keen to discourage their own regions from buggering off. The whole thing is so unprecedented that I don't think anyone knows what will happen.

All correct Mike.
I think there is no chance of Westminster granting Indie2 while we are in the throes of an Article 50 run in.
Scotland would walk straight back into the EU if they vote to leave the UK post Brexit. Much less problematic that trying to get some sort of special treatment while still part of the UK.

Is there any way the Scots can force Indie2? If so, they might do this just for badness to completely feck up the rest-of-UK Article 50 negotiations...

[Snipe Watson]

Not really. Scotland cannot apply to join the EU until the UK completes their exit and they have a referendum to leave the UK and vote to leave the UK. Lot of variables there and that's before we even consider will their be an EU to join when all that palaver is over.

Is that really true though Snipe? Scotland is already a part of the EU albeit as part of a larger state. If there were a referendum in Scotland before Brexit becomes a reality surely it is not beyond the capabilities of the European politicians and the Eurocrats to treat brexit as a only a part of the UK leaving with the remainder staying under the same conditions except with a readjusted representation and voting rights.

However if Westminster invokes Article 50 to formally start exit negotiations then that will apply to Scotland as well.

If the Scots vote for independence prior to the conclusion of the Article 50 negotiations, then they may say, "well we want to stop Article 50 negotiations for oor wee bit" and as I understand it, the rest if the rest of the EU agrees, the negotiations could stop applying to Scotland but it strikes me as a legal nightmare as it may mean going back to renegotiate then entire thing again...

If the Scots vote for independence after Article 50 negotiations conclude, then I assume they would need to apply for EU membership although again with agreement of EU members maybe this could be fast tracked given that Scotland is recently departed rather than a brand new applicant. Although the Spanish may not be keen to discourage their own regions from buggering off. The whole thing is so unprecedented that I don't think anyone knows what will happen.

All correct Mike.
I think there is no chance of Westminster granting Indie2 while we are in the throes of an Article 50 run in.
Scotland would walk straight back into the EU if they vote to leave the UK post Brexit. Much less problematic that trying to get some sort of special treatment while still part of the UK.

Is there any way the Scots can force Indie2? If so, they might do this just for badness to completely feck up the rest-of-UK Article 50 negotiations...

I don't see how. It's in Westminster's gift and the Tories have enough votes to ensure that never happens.

Speaking about EU fudge. I would bet several pounds of someone else's money that back channels are already chattering between Westminster and Brussels. I can see something being cobbled together along the lines of a semidetached relationship.

[mikerob]

A government lawyers has said that Article 50 won't be this year.

The court cases are queuing up on the point that invoking Article 50 is a parliamentary decision not a prime minister or government decision.