League Run In (Predictions)
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League Run In (Predictions)
The Irish
Leinster (1st - 55pts) Munster (A), Sharks (A), Stormers (A), Munster (H)
Ulster (2nd - 50pts) Bulls (A), Munster (H), Edinburgh (A), Sharks (H)
Munster (3rd - 47pts) Leinster (H), Ulster (A), Cardiff (H), Leinster (A)
Anytime Leinster have gone to Munster needing a win in recent years they've gotten it. The South African teams may strike a challenge to them only because the trip will be wedged between European fixtures. However with internationals back I don't think Leinster will lose another league game this season in the regular league even if three of them are away. For Ulster maybe a point next weekend, four points at home V Munster and a win in Edinburgh if we really need it. Sharks at home will be a win. Good for a conservative 10 points. Munster are our closest challenge to a top 2 finish at present, they've a pretty tough assignment. Leinster twice, they'll be targeting the game against us as a ten pointer. It will be a cracker. Ultimately they'll beat Cardiff and pick up a few bonus points - Good for 7 points
The Scots - Glasgow and Edinburgh
Glasgow (4th - 45pts) - Zebre (H), Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Edinbrgh (A)
Edinburgh (5th - 43pts) - Lions (A), Zebre (H), Ulster (H), Glasgow (H)
There'll be a top eight finish for both but where they are in the shake down unsure. I don't think either are capable of four wins on the bounce to jump ourselves into 2nd place. Think both have potential to pick up 12-15 points at best.
The South Africans
Stomers (6th - 38pts) Ospreys (H), Bulls (H), Glasgow (H), Leinster (H), Scarlets (A)
Bulls (7th - 37pts) Ulster (H), Stormers (A), Benetton (H), Glasgow (H) Ospreys (A)
Sharks 8th - 36pts) Dragons (H), Lions (H), Leinster (H), Connacht (H), Ulster (A)
This is where it gets interesting, all of the South African teams have 5 games left, a game more than any of the other teams in the top eight. The Stormers and Sharks have four of those games at home. It will be interesting to see what type of squad Leinster send south if they have the league wrapped up and have eyes on the Heineken Cup. This could affect the shake down. Even if a South African team wins four of their last five I don't see any getting over the 20 point mark.
Best of the rest
I think the current top eight will not change, the Welsh have derbies and with them all being terrible will take points from each other, the Italians.... moving on.
Ulster predicted finish - 2nd
Looking at the other teams, if we can get to 60 points and allow Leinster to do their thing (run away with it) we'll get a home QF and if we can win that, have another home Semi. A win versus Munster at home gets us half way there and rids us from any challenge they could mount.
Leinster (1st - 55pts) Munster (A), Sharks (A), Stormers (A), Munster (H)
Ulster (2nd - 50pts) Bulls (A), Munster (H), Edinburgh (A), Sharks (H)
Munster (3rd - 47pts) Leinster (H), Ulster (A), Cardiff (H), Leinster (A)
Anytime Leinster have gone to Munster needing a win in recent years they've gotten it. The South African teams may strike a challenge to them only because the trip will be wedged between European fixtures. However with internationals back I don't think Leinster will lose another league game this season in the regular league even if three of them are away. For Ulster maybe a point next weekend, four points at home V Munster and a win in Edinburgh if we really need it. Sharks at home will be a win. Good for a conservative 10 points. Munster are our closest challenge to a top 2 finish at present, they've a pretty tough assignment. Leinster twice, they'll be targeting the game against us as a ten pointer. It will be a cracker. Ultimately they'll beat Cardiff and pick up a few bonus points - Good for 7 points
The Scots - Glasgow and Edinburgh
Glasgow (4th - 45pts) - Zebre (H), Stormers (A), Bulls (A), Edinbrgh (A)
Edinburgh (5th - 43pts) - Lions (A), Zebre (H), Ulster (H), Glasgow (H)
There'll be a top eight finish for both but where they are in the shake down unsure. I don't think either are capable of four wins on the bounce to jump ourselves into 2nd place. Think both have potential to pick up 12-15 points at best.
The South Africans
Stomers (6th - 38pts) Ospreys (H), Bulls (H), Glasgow (H), Leinster (H), Scarlets (A)
Bulls (7th - 37pts) Ulster (H), Stormers (A), Benetton (H), Glasgow (H) Ospreys (A)
Sharks 8th - 36pts) Dragons (H), Lions (H), Leinster (H), Connacht (H), Ulster (A)
This is where it gets interesting, all of the South African teams have 5 games left, a game more than any of the other teams in the top eight. The Stormers and Sharks have four of those games at home. It will be interesting to see what type of squad Leinster send south if they have the league wrapped up and have eyes on the Heineken Cup. This could affect the shake down. Even if a South African team wins four of their last five I don't see any getting over the 20 point mark.
Best of the rest
I think the current top eight will not change, the Welsh have derbies and with them all being terrible will take points from each other, the Italians.... moving on.
Ulster predicted finish - 2nd
Looking at the other teams, if we can get to 60 points and allow Leinster to do their thing (run away with it) we'll get a home QF and if we can win that, have another home Semi. A win versus Munster at home gets us half way there and rids us from any challenge they could mount.
Last edited by UlsterNo9 on Sun Mar 27, 2022 7:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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THROWN UNDER THE BUS AND EXILED 14/04/18
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Niner,
Many thanks
after yesterday, cheered me up no end!!
Many thanks
after yesterday, cheered me up no end!!
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Second that Bobbie, thanks Nine for the work done on this certainly helps to simplify what we need going forward.
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Hoping I have it right, a win in the home game versus Munster is key. The more games Leinster win the better, they'll efectively kill a Munster challenge to ourselves and if they beat the two Saffer teams it means neither can get to the magic 60 pts.
Finishing above Leinster makes no difference, any final between us and them will be at Lansdowne Road regardless of who is 1st or 2nd. Of course final venue is still to be decided, either way Lansdowne is the only logical answer.
Finishing above Leinster makes no difference, any final between us and them will be at Lansdowne Road regardless of who is 1st or 2nd. Of course final venue is still to be decided, either way Lansdowne is the only logical answer.
BRING OUR BOYS HOME #BOBH
THROWN UNDER THE BUS AND EXILED 14/04/18
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
It just boils the proverbial because if the Stormers result had stood, we'd be well on the way to safety.
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
According to Dan we won the Stormers game so please adjust the table accordingly.
I have my own tv channel, what have you got?
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Potentially the most annoying thing since the SLogan "the stadium will be ready for the knockout stage" debacle
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Big Neville Southall
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Happy for leinster to romp away to top spot. If we can beat munster and the sharks at home we should be close to getting 2nd. Everyone else will drop points, though if Edinburgh beat the lions this week they will fancy their chances so the game against them will become key also.
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Worse than micro climate gate?
I have my own tv channel, what have you got?
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Or when Sparkys head fell off? Think of the childer
BRING OUR BOYS HOME #BOBH
THROWN UNDER THE BUS AND EXILED 14/04/18
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Big Jim Hamilton reckons the final is going to be in South Africa.
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Leinster vs Munster in SA. I would love that outcome.
I have my own tv channel, what have you got?
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
The South African TMOs are doing their best to ensure it
BRING OUR BOYS HOME #BOBH
THROWN UNDER THE BUS AND EXILED 14/04/18
THROWN UNDER THE BUS AND EXILED 14/04/18
Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Glasgow were beating the Stormers 7-0 for much of the 1st half. Stormers now 13-7 up just into 2nd half.
A Glasgow win would not do us any favours.
A Glasgow win would not do us any favours.
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Re: League Run In (Predictions)
Does anyone understand euro qualification for next season? Am I right that Ulster are in danger of not qualifying now?
As far as I can see, it’s the 4 “shield” winners from each of Ireland, Wales, SA and Scot/Italy (combined) that go through along with the next 4 sides (from any country) from the combined league table. So at the minute it would be Leinster, Stormers, Glasgow and Scarlets through as shield winners plus munster, sharks, us and Edinburgh. But Bulls (48) could well catch us (51). Is that right? Their remaining fixtures are Glasgow in SA and Ospreys away - I'm not sure i'd bet against them in either of those.
Can someone please reassure me that I've picked that up wrong? What a turn around for one of the only teams unbeaten in europe until two weeks ago.
As far as I can see, it’s the 4 “shield” winners from each of Ireland, Wales, SA and Scot/Italy (combined) that go through along with the next 4 sides (from any country) from the combined league table. So at the minute it would be Leinster, Stormers, Glasgow and Scarlets through as shield winners plus munster, sharks, us and Edinburgh. But Bulls (48) could well catch us (51). Is that right? Their remaining fixtures are Glasgow in SA and Ospreys away - I'm not sure i'd bet against them in either of those.
Can someone please reassure me that I've picked that up wrong? What a turn around for one of the only teams unbeaten in europe until two weeks ago.