Vote early, vote often.

[StandUp]

SF 5-1 on to win most seats with William Hill.

So one set of dinosaurs is replaced with another.
I believe the younger generations are generally moving away from tribal politics - there are exceptions- but it’s going to take a long time before we get rid of these hateful, bitter, inbred fools on both sides. I may not see it in my lifetime but hopefully my kids get to see a Northern Ireland (or perhaps just Ireland) without this particular brand of loathing in its politics.

[damianmcr]

Alliance are running two candidates in Lagan Valley this time around. I think Sorcha Eastwood is a safe enough bet. It's between David Honeyford and Pat Catney SDLP who gets the final seat in LV. Can't see DUP dropping further from the two they have. Robbie Butler is popular so he's definitely sure of enough votes.

Will Jeffrey stand down as an MP is the big question. Speaking with an Alliance rep a few nights ago and he thinks he might stand down as an MLA and co-op someone else in. Didn't Jeffrey say the party should be lead by someone in Stormont?

[big mervyn]

Alliance are running two candidates in Lagan Valley this time around. I think Sorcha Eastwood is a safe enough bet. It's between David Honeyford and Pat Catney SDLP who gets the final seat in LV. Can't see DUP dropping further from the two they have. Robbie Butler is popular so he's definitely sure of enough votes.

Will Jeffrey stand down as an MP is the big question. Speaking with an Alliance rep a few nights ago and he thinks he might stand down as an MLA and co-op someone else in. Didn't Jeffrey say the party should be lead by someone in Stormont?

Jeffrey probably isn't too confident of the Assembly reconvening if the Shinners top the the ballot and is reluctant to give up his Westminster berth too soon. No doubt the Protocol will be used as the excuse

The whole thing is a shambles ... just for a change

I'll be happy if the DUP/SF vote decreases regardless of who wins most seats, though some nontypical SF voters may be sorely tempted to lend them their vote this time just to annoy the DUP.

[damianmcr]

I think you'll be happy with the results then Merv. Most polls have both down on the last election.

[big mervyn]

I think South Belfast will be largely unchanged with Deirdre Hargey (SF) Paula Bradshaw (Alliance) Clare Bailey (Green) Matthew O'Toole (SDLP) returned and Edwin Poots replacing the late Christopher Stalford for the DUP. (still not an official mention of his cause of death. So much for these things not being taboo).

The first preferences are probably the only thing of interest.

[Hans Indaruck]

the late Christopher Stalford for the DUP. (still not an official mention of his cause of death. So much for these things not being taboo)

Merv,

Like you I had initially suspected the term “sudden death” as shorthand for suicide, but it is not the case in this instance - Christopher Stalford died of a heart attack (aged only 39!).

[big mervyn]

the late Christopher Stalford for the DUP. (still not an official mention of his cause of death. So much for these things not being taboo)

Merv,

Like you I had initially suspected the term “sudden death” as shorthand for suicide, but it is not the case in this instance - Christopher Stalford died of a heart attack (aged only 39!).

Thanks for that Hans. All seemed a bit hush hush. Bit of a shocker.

[StandUp]

Was the heart attack caused by a tight rope, 40 Valium and a bottle of vodka?

[solidarity]

I hear the Greens and Alliance are looking at a bit of a boost. I hope voters dissatisfied with the DUP don't go to TUV; that would be a backward step. Personally, I'd like to see the more left leaning folk (many of whom are independents) get a few more seats but I'm not hopeful.

On another point, it's time for us to leave this consociational arrangement behind and move to the 'normal' government and opposition arrangement. With the party split as expected there would have to be a coalition and that wouldn't be at all bad.

[big mervyn]

I hear the Greens and Alliance are looking at a bit of a boost. I hope voters dissatisfied with the DUP don't go to TUV; that would be a backward step. Personally, I'd like to see the more left leaning folk (many of whom are independents) get a few more seats but I'm not hopeful.

On another point, it's time for us to leave this consociational arrangement behind and move to the 'normal' government and opposition arrangement. With the party split as expected there would have to be a coalition and that wouldn't be at all bad.

Spot on Solids. This current system of powersharing and vetoes was designed to protect nationalists when the Unionist had a significant majority. With the fleg wavers now almost at parity and a sizeable number of green/alliance and the odd indie in the middle, it is surely time for voluntary rather than mandatory coalitions and a move to a grown-up palatics.

[solidarity]

So we've got:
Elly Odhiambo in S Belfast from Kenya
Sipho Sabanda in S Belfast from Zimbabwe
Kate Nicholl in S Belfast from Zimbabwe

Looks like the African vote is going to be seriously split.

Anyone know of any other non-native NI folk standing? A few more might help us expand our thinking a wee bit.

[big mervyn]

So we've got:
Elly Odhiambo in S Belfast from Kenya
Sipho Sabanda in S Belfast from Zimbabwe
Kate Nicholl in S Belfast from Zimbabwe

Looks like the African vote is going to be seriously split.

Anyone know of any other non-native NI folk standing? A few more might help us expand our thinking a wee bit.

Doug Beattie was born in England.

Kate Nicholl was in my daughter's class at school.
So was Matthew Robinson the Conservative candidate in N Down.
Nathan Anderson ex-DUP was another one but he left during the recent leadership row.

[BR]

Alliance are running two candidates in Lagan Valley this time around. I think Sorcha Eastwood is a safe enough bet. It's between David Honeyford and Pat Catney SDLP who gets the final seat in LV. Can't see DUP dropping further from the two they have. Robbie Butler is popular so he's definitely sure of enough votes.

Will Jeffrey stand down as an MP is the big question. Speaking with an Alliance rep a few nights ago and he thinks he might stand down as an MLA and co-op someone else in. Didn't Jeffrey say the party should be lead by someone in Stormont?

I can see TUV staying in the fight a bit longer this time around, and you would expect most of their votes will die with them when eliminated. UUP got nearly 700 of Givan's 2nd preferences last time. Don't think that will be repeated (proportionally).

Votes transferring right will ultimately hurt Honeyford, I think. So with better vote management by the UUP, they could see Turner taking Catney's place.

So - I'm going for:
Givan, Eastwood, Butler, Turner and of course Rankin*

*no way Jeff will take DFM

[damianmcr]

Alliance are running two candidates in Lagan Valley this time around. I think Sorcha Eastwood is a safe enough bet. It's between David Honeyford and Pat Catney SDLP who gets the final seat in LV. Can't see DUP dropping further from the two they have. Robbie Butler is popular so he's definitely sure of enough votes.

Will Jeffrey stand down as an MP is the big question. Speaking with an Alliance rep a few nights ago and he thinks he might stand down as an MLA and co-op someone else in. Didn't Jeffrey say the party should be lead by someone in Stormont?

I can see TUV staying in the fight a bit longer this time around, and you would expect most of their votes will die with them when eliminated. UUP got nearly 700 of Givan's 2nd preferences last time. Don't think that will be repeated (proportionally).

Votes transferring right will ultimately hurt Honeyford, I think. So with better vote management by the UUP, they could see Turner taking Catney's place.

So - I'm going for:
Givan, Eastwood, Butler, Turner and of course Rankin*

*no way Jeff will take DFM

I was planning doing Catney, Honeyford, Eastwood, Butler. It was a toss up but Pat called to my door the other night and since he was the first he gets 1st preference.

By the time it gets down to Sorcha and Robbie I doubt it'll be needed.

I wonder how Turner will do. Will UUP still transfer as much to SDLP this time around.

[BR]

Alliance are running two candidates in Lagan Valley this time around. I think Sorcha Eastwood is a safe enough bet. It's between David Honeyford and Pat Catney SDLP who gets the final seat in LV. Can't see DUP dropping further from the two they have. Robbie Butler is popular so he's definitely sure of enough votes.

Will Jeffrey stand down as an MP is the big question. Speaking with an Alliance rep a few nights ago and he thinks he might stand down as an MLA and co-op someone else in. Didn't Jeffrey say the party should be lead by someone in Stormont?

I can see TUV staying in the fight a bit longer this time around, and you would expect most of their votes will die with them when eliminated. UUP got nearly 700 of Givan's 2nd preferences last time. Don't think that will be repeated (proportionally).

Votes transferring right will ultimately hurt Honeyford, I think. So with better vote management by the UUP, they could see Turner taking Catney's place.

So - I'm going for:
Givan, Eastwood, Butler, Turner and of course Rankin*

*no way Jeff will take DFM

I was planning doing Catney, Honeyford, Eastwood, Butler. It was a toss up but Pat called to my door the other night and since he was the first he gets 1st preference.

By the time it gets down to Sorcha and Robbie I doubt it'll be needed.

I wonder how Turner will do. Will UUP still transfer as much to SDLP this time around.

To clarify - that was my prediction for the returned MLAs; not my ballot paper!

Pat is a really good bloke. I don't know if you remember the old Kitchen, but it was an excellent bar.