Vote early, vote often.

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solidarity
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by solidarity »

Well, that's that then. Sinn Fein first minister, presumably no deputy, so no Executive. I don't often want to emigrate, but now...
I'm a natual Unionist but it's not the SF first minister that worries me, it's the DUP - bunch of wasters, why not get in there and call the SF bluff?
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big mervyn
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by big mervyn »

Disappointed for Clare Bailey. A very good MLA in S Belfast who punched well above her weight.
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big mervyn
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by big mervyn »

Biggest loser: Conor Rafferty (Resume Party) who received 13 first preference votes in Mid Ulster.

Must have taken a while to redistribute those :lol:
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by Lurgan Lad »

Is there a bit of a shift towards the centre, on the unionist side TUV, DUP and UUP vote went down a total of 3.3%, while on the nationalist side Aontu, Sinn Fein, People before Profit and SDLP vote went down 0.9%, with Alliance and Green up 4.1%. Maybe there is a bit of hope for the future. The first step though needs to be to have a system that prevents any one party bringing down Stormont, get that sorted and I think people will vote less for the more extreme/heavy hitter parties and for more constructive politics.
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solidarity
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by solidarity »

Lurgan Lad wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 10:08 am The first step though needs to be to have a system that prevents any one party bringing down Stormont, get that sorted and I think people will vote less for the more extreme/heavy hitter parties and for more constructive politics.
This is absolutely crucial. The sooner this system goes, the better. A voluntary coalition between one of the big parties and one or two others who would keep them honest would be ideal. The biggest parties here aren't going to vote for it, so step up now, Boris and Micheál !! :stir:

I'm not holding my breath. >flog
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by Lurgan Lad »

solidarity wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 8:58 pm
Lurgan Lad wrote: Sun May 08, 2022 10:08 am The first step though needs to be to have a system that prevents any one party bringing down Stormont, get that sorted and I think people will vote less for the more extreme/heavy hitter parties and for more constructive politics.
This is absolutely crucial. The sooner this system goes, the better. A voluntary coalition between one of the big parties and one or two others who would keep them honest would be ideal. The biggest parties here aren't going to vote for it, so step up now, Boris and Micheál !! :stir:

I'm not holding my breath. >flog
Completely agree Solids, neither DUP or Sinn Fein would countenance it. I actually feel that a Stormont that doesn't function benefits Sinn Fein much more than the DUP, for NI to remain part of the union when there is a Catholic majority is going to require local competence and solutions to local issues.
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by rumncoke »

On current voting trends the current format of Executive is a hindrance -- a return to majority party executive but all action etc requiring a 66% approval of MLA .

The pretence that Stormont or Government can affect the standard of living in current situation is an illusion .

Stormont is a like a collection of teachers handing out sweets with no control or means to increase the sweets in the box . which is true to some extent of all governments they can only transfer sweets between pupils take from one to give to another( a power not granted to Stormont.)
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BR
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by BR »

If (and i accept the scale of the if) UUP and SDLP were to agree to designate as Other, would that not allow APNI to nominate a dfm, and everyone could get on with it?
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

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BR wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:49 am If (and i accept the scale of the if) UUP and SDLP were to agree to designate as Other, would that not allow APNI to nominate a dfm, and everyone could get on with it?
No it wouldn't.

The FM and DFM posts can only go to someone designated as unionist or nationalist. Under the current rules even if Alliance won every seat they still couldn't nominate FM/DFM.
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by Bobbievee »

Fintan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 8:37 am
BR wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:49 am If (and i accept the scale of the if) UUP and SDLP were to agree to designate as Other, would that not allow APNI to nominate a dfm, and everyone could get on with it?
No it wouldn't.

The FM and DFM posts can only go to someone designated as unionist or nationalist. Under the current rules even if Alliance won every seat they still couldn't nominate FM/DFM.
Correct
Another crazy aspect of this madhouse system that we have.
A party with approximately double the number of first preferences of another party gets 17 times the number of seats. Proportional misrepresentation?
And at Executive level, every decision within the mandatory coalition is subject to trade off with the " partners " in a series of compromises , producing outcomes totally unrelated to the merits of the rational pros and cons. ........or costs.
Proved to be unworkable. May have served a purpose in persuading the murdering gangsters to " cease" , but time to scrap it and devise an alternative.
Whilst in suspension for other reasons , it might be a good time to get started.?
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big mervyn
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by big mervyn »

Fintan wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 8:37 am
BR wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 2:49 am If (and i accept the scale of the if) UUP and SDLP were to agree to designate as Other, would that not allow APNI to nominate a dfm, and everyone could get on with it?
No it wouldn't.

The FM and DFM posts can only go to someone designated as unionist or nationalist. Under the current rules even if Alliance won every seat they still couldn't nominate FM/DFM.
I think the St Andrews agreement also changed the entitlement from a voting block with the majority to a single party which would preclude a coalition FM/DFM.

This election has further highlighted the fact that the current system is not fit for purpose. Blimey :shock: I sound like Jim Allister :lol:
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by WestDr »

Bobbievee wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 9:28 am A party with approximately double the number of first preferences of another party gets 17 times the number of seats. Proportional misrepresentation?
Bobbievee, I've picked out this one part of your post as (IMO) it's worth looking at in a little more detail..... and particularly around the issue of what would be the outcomes from other systems.

Assuming (a) 90 seats (b) split equally into the 18 constituencies, then under First Past the Post (FPTP) for the 5 seats in each constituency, only in Strangford did a TUV candidate (Stephen Cooper) get into the top 5 on first preferences. Even whingeing Lorna Smyth got 25% less first preference votes than David Honeyford.

Electing MLA's on first preferences wouldn't provide a greatly different outcome.

If NI retained PR-STV, but had just one constituency and a single regional list, then the outcome may well have looked a lot like the 2019 European Parliament Elections, where Jim Allister got 62k votes and Naomi Long got 105k (Diane Dodds got 124k) - total turnout was 45% compared to last week's 63.5%. Jim should have complained more then - he got 10% of the vote and still didn't get a seat. This time his lot only got 7.6% first preference. You could almost make a case that the TUV's vote ceiling is about 65k.

Perhaps the TUV should really be moaning at how did a party that got only 9,798 first preferences (1.1% - a fall from 1.7%) get a seat.....? But then perhaps that because (a) PBP focus their efforts, (b) seem to be a little more transfer-friendly to the voters in the constituencies they stand in and (c) actually have some policies that show how they might achieve change.... And those independents got two seats with only 25k first preference votes.... Shock horror !

All it would appear that the TUV achieved was to split the anti-Protocol vote and, where their votes did transfer, from the round-by-round it seems they transferred to the DUP. No wonder Sammy was raging.

Of course, the real voting inequity is in the UK parliamentary elections with the Lib Dems getting 3.7m votes (11.5% of the total vote) and 11 seats compared to the SNP getting 1.25m votes (3.9% of the UK total, but 30% of Scotland) and securing 48 seats in 2019. If the TUV complain too much, the Tories will give them FPTP, and then the Assembly results will match the Parliamentary ones - where nationalism is in a majority there too..... and Jim A wouldn't have a seat either.

Having experienced both systems, and lived and voted in a marginal Con/Lab urban constituency in the UK, it is great that here, every single vote does count to potentially elect a candidate you prefer. If Starmer (and Labour) truly wanted a 'compelling message' for the UK electorate, it would be 'with PR-STV, everywhere every vote counts' (I'd also have half the number of constituencies and 2 members for each). Whether of course the UK media would have the patience to wait for results is, of course, another matter....

As you note at the end of your post, it's about time to think hard about changing the system from nationalist/unionist... are we going to have to live with a situation where political unionism has 5 seats, everyone else (nationalism & other) has more, but we still have to wait on them ? Should Stormont return at least the PoC is no longer available to the DUP.
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big mervyn
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by big mervyn »

I think the current constituency based PR system is as good as you can get given that it favours local representation while going some way to accommodate smaller parties.

The actual structures of government at Stormont DO need an overhaul though.

My vote was one of those that counted for nathin like everyone else whose 1st preference finished 6th!
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by WestDr »

big mervyn wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 3:13 pm I think the current constituency based PR system is as good as you can get given that it favours local representation while going some way to accommodate smaller parties.

The actual structures of government at Stormont DO need an overhaul though.

My vote was one of those that counted for nathin like everyone else whose 1st preference finished 6th!
Fully agree.

It would be interesting to see if, in the event of a UI, the current 18 constituency areas would be re-configured or just have the requisite number of TD's in each area from the 61 or 62 the population would merit at the current rate of 1 TD per 29.2k population. In that case, surely we'd have a great cast of independents.... although fascinating to notice the level of first preferences for Ms Turtle and de Souza. The patriarchy is clearly strong in FST. You have to wonder why both chose there rather than say, South Belfast and Foyle ?

As for your vote BM, did you only put one number in ? Or were your remaining choices all numbers from 7 onwards to the lowest number of First Preferences ? Or did you start at -5 and work upwards (please tell me that's possible.....).
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big mervyn
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Re: Vote early, vote often.

Post by big mervyn »

WestDr wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 4:44 pm
big mervyn wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 3:13 pm I think the current constituency based PR system is as good as you can get given that it favours local representation while going some way to accommodate smaller parties.

The actual structures of government at Stormont DO need an overhaul though.

My vote was one of those that counted for nathin like everyone else whose 1st preference finished 6th!
Fully agree.

It would be interesting to see if, in the event of a UI, the current 18 constituency areas would be re-configured or just have the requisite number of TD's in each area from the 61 or 62 the population would merit at the current rate of 1 TD per 29.2k population. In that case, surely we'd have a great cast of independents.... although fascinating to notice the level of first preferences for Ms Turtle and de Souza. The patriarchy is clearly strong in FST. You have to wonder why both chose there rather than say, South Belfast and Foyle ?

As for your vote BM, did you only put one number in ? Or were your remaining choices all numbers from 7 onwards to the lowest number of First Preferences ? Or did you start at -5 and work upwards (please tell me that's possible.....).
I voted right down the list but because my No 1 stayed until the final count that's where it remained.
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