Matt Williams thoughts on how game has evolved

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Might not be the best coach around, then again the game now might suit him better, but he has a decent knack of analysing how the game is played.

The Irish Times - Saturday, November 6, 2010

RUGBY: Kick or run at their first turnover? A choice that
may well define Ireland’s World Cup season, writes MATT
WILLIAMS

CHARLES DARWIN said: “It is not the strongest of the
species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but rather
the one most responsive to change.”

Rugby Union has changed dramatically this year. As usual
New Zealand adapted quickest, with Australia close behind.
South Africa, under Peter de Villiers, have stagnated.

The 2010 Tri-Nations saw a revolution in where teams
source possession. Possession is like a cash flow to a
business, without cash flow you are sunk. In rugby it used
to come mainly from set-plays (hence, South Africa won
the 2007 World Cup), penalties, opposition kicks and
turnovers. But the 2010 Tri-Nations provided the revolution
in the possession stakes due to the new tackle
interpretations. The Wallabies, even more than the All
Blacks, denied opposing teams from gaining a platform off
lineouts by refusing to kick the ball off the paddock. It
meant the Springboks and New Zealand couldn’t build
attacks off the lineout platform unless they won penalties.

The new Australian mindset was determined not to kick the
ball back to the opposition when the laws make it easier to
retain possession and build the phases. The ultimate
example is Australia beating South Africa in Brisbane with
Wallaby outhalf Quade Cooper putting boot to ball once in
80 minutes. Like New Zealand, they had the personnel to
adapt to change. This tactic was designed to beat South
Africa. Don’t provide Victor Matfield with the opportunity to
show his magnificence in the lineout.

Australia eventually beat New Zealand last weekend in
Hong Kong, after 10 attempts. Under Robbie Deans’
coaching philosophy, they took the New Zealand game plan
and added their own stamp to it. It allowed them to finally
overcome the best team on the planet with inferior players.
It also reopened the mental scars for the All Blacks dating
back to 2007. This is the model Ireland can look to.

In stark contrast, the world champions have patently failed
to evolve. Going back to Darwin’s theory, the ’Boks are the
strongest but have failed to respond to change. Morne
Steyn will kick plenty of ball this evening. It gives Ireland a
choice because the tactics that delivered a Grand Slam in
2009 were not enough last season and will be severely
exposed by the All Blacks in two weeks’ time and Australia
come the World Cup next year. The key is to counter-
attack from every one of those kicks.

So, there will be plenty of scrums and lineouts today but it
will mask what is coming down the tracks. New Zealand will
not kick the ball to us. Will Jonny Sexton, Rob Kearney and
others kick it back to South Africa? If Ireland fail to
develop their game away from set-plays they will be left
behind. A radical rethink of ball usage, I presume, has
already been initiated by the Irish management. The big
question now is whether they will empower the players to
adapt.

The tempo must be sped up. Tommy Bowe’s first try
against England last year was off a turnover in the tackle.
David Wallace improvised at scrumhalf and passed to
Stephen Ferris and then Jamie Heaslip shifted possession to
Sexton who put in a clever grubber kick for Bowe to gather
and score. This was a sign of the unshackled blueprint for
success. Off a penalty in Irish territory it makes sense to
kick for touch but off a bent arm, Eoin Reddan must tap
and go. And his forwards must be ready.

The actions of Rob Kearney, in particular, will tell us if
Ireland are prepared to adapt. Having watched him since
he was a kid, Kearney is clearly on the verge of becoming
a great player. He is brave, excellent under high ball, a
competent defender and an aggressive, skilful runner. The
last piece in the jigsaw is his ability to bring players into a
counter-attack by offloading in the tackle but he needs the
assistance of team-mates to make this final leap. Too often
he is tackled without passing.

When Steyn kicks long, Kearney will gather. Two options:
kick it or attack. Kearney (like Bowe and Luke Fitzgerald)
has a natural instinct to run but unless the wingers and
other powerful runners from the centre and backrow funnel
back to support, his counter-attacking will be exposed to a
turnover.

Brian Ashton said it best: “Mindset drives performance.”

Rob should look at former Wallaby fullback Chris Latham.
There is an Australian technique Latham used time and
again – gather a kick, look to spread it wide quickly but
demand it back immediately from the first receiver and
attack the short-side. The main principle of counter-
attacking is to go where there are fewest defenders and to
support the ball carrier.

The IRFU have stated the World Cup is the priority. During
the Eddie O’Sullivan era it was of equal importance to the
Six Nations. On that presumption, a change in mindset, to
enable Ireland to beat Australia in the pool match next
year, must become evident this month.

Ireland have the tools to become a brilliant running side.
Picture Cian Healy, Ferris, Wallace and Heaslip powering
onto the ball after Kearney and the wingers make inroads.
An exciting thought. This style is not to be confused with
the Barbarians’ all-out running game, evident in the defeat
to Scotland at Croke Park in March. Every time a player
passes he is making a decision. Ball-in-hand rugby requires
a clever, precise and disciplined mindset. It is not called
15-man rugby for nothing. Everyone must be aligned and
willing to be part of the attack.

However, kicking does not become redundant. Mick Byrne
is the All Blacks kicking coach. For an Aussie to be
employed by the Kiwis means he knows his business. A
former AFL player with over 250 games for Hawthorn, I
brought Mick to Leinster and then Scotland. He also worked
with Saracens. You can see his influence in the low
trajectory of Dan Carter’s cross field punts to Cory Jane
during the Tri-Nations. It is a familiar Irish tactic but Carter
does it with less height on the kick and less chance of a
knock-on or turnover.

Mick calls it “a pass off the foot”. Outhalf to winger. The
Springboks defend so tightly that Carter exposed the space
outside the winger. He did it almost exclusively from his
own 22 as opposed to feeding Matfield’s aerial prowess
around halfway or allowing Bryan Habana a chance to
gallop into open space.

Sexton will look for Bowe at some stage. If they have
studied this watershed Tri-Nations, they can expose the
’Boks. Ireland mimicked South Africa these past few years
by kicking away 50 per cent of possession and relying on
an abrasive forwards’ game and Paul O’Connell’s
excellence out of touch (O’Connell is out so other key
strengths must be utilised).

Australia and New Zealand went another way. As a result,
they have streaked clear of the Springboks. The route
Ireland will travel down will become apparent from the first
turnover they get today. Kick or run. A simple choice that
may well define their World Cup season.

Of course there is the fear of losing a sixth game on the
bounce but a commitment to the new process will yield
results. Forget about the referee’s breakdown
interpretations. Everyone knows the drill. Possession is
king. We know this Ireland squad has the necessary
character and is littered with cerebral players. November
will tell us if they can adapt to the sweeping changes within
the game.