Ulster v Connacht

[MightyRearranger]

I think there's a slight difference between a season being a success and moving in the right direction. The betting markets are currently giving Connacht about a 15% chance to turn us over, which I think is about fair. Similarly I would suspect if we do make it to the final against Leinster we'll be given a 10% chance or so. Upsets in both matches would be possible, but a day where everything goes Connachts (or the Stormers the week after) way doesn't mean they're a better team than us, or we're moving in the wrong direction, nor would everything falling in our favour and us winning the league mean we're a better team than Leinster and closing the gap to them.

I'm personally more concerned with how Ulster are progressing, both in terms of how well we're playing as a team and how players are progressing/improving. With regards to the first, I think our pack and particularly the set piece are functioning very well under Grant and playing better than the sum of its parts, while our backline as a whole seems a lot less incisive than last year, due to individual players losing form, perhaps Payne's departure or a combination of the two.

In terms of players coming through, I think on form our back line for the most part is already good enough (though options at ten and/or PJ would obviously be an improvement), but we need to start to see more forwards coming through. This year has seen McCann, Sheridan and Moore establish themselves as first choices, with the latter being probably the best forward prospect to come through since Hendo. Be it as a result of the coaching here or the Ireland camp, this season has also see the continued rise of Treadwell, to the point he is now becoming one of our better players. Seeing the conveyer belt improving and more forwards coming through (in which this season has been a success) or the team functioning well as a unit (in which this season has been a mixed bag) is more important to me than whether or not we win a one off match.

[CIMANFOREVER]

Benneton getting tanked in Europe semi so connacht will be guaranteed Heineken cup next season.

Not if Sharks win the URC.

Correct me if I'm wrong Neil

By the book you are correct.

One step closer then 🫡. The sharks are so far away from winning it it is basically there. Suspect it will be confirmed next week.

The Sharks are an enigma- very good squad poorly motivated and managed

[UlsterNo9]

Benneton getting tanked in Europe semi so connacht will be guaranteed Heineken cup next season.

Not if Sharks win the URC.

Correct me if I'm wrong Neil

By the book you are correct.

One step closer then 🫡. The sharks are so far away from winning it it is basically there. Suspect it will be confirmed next week.

The Sharks are an enigma- very good squad poorly motivated and managed

Question, do the Sharks have a better squad than Ulster? I'm saying yes.

Munster certainly have a better squad than ourselves, who else ? Bulls, Stormers and Glasgow?

Where are we in terms of squad strength against the other URC teams?

[Dave]

Not if Sharks win the URC.

Correct me if I'm wrong Neil

By the book you are correct.

One step closer then 🫡. The sharks are so far away from winning it it is basically there. Suspect it will be confirmed next week.

The Sharks are an enigma- very good squad poorly motivated and managed

Question, do the Sharks have a better squad than Ulster? I'm saying yes.

Munster certainly have a better squad than ourselves, who else ? Bulls, Stormers and Glasgow?

Where are we in terms of squad strength against the other URC teams?

What's your take?

[UlsterNo9]

6th / 7th best squad in the league, finishing regular season in 2nd....

Is that down to coaching?

[Dave]

6th / 7th best squad in the league, finishing regular season in 2nd....

Is that down to coaching?

Shirley SUFTUMs play a role!?

Dan is great. It's a pity he wants to leave. I think Roddy Grant is doing great work.

[richardt84]

Not if Sharks win the URC.

Correct me if I'm wrong Neil

By the book you are correct.

One step closer then 🫡. The sharks are so far away from winning it it is basically there. Suspect it will be confirmed next week.

The Sharks are an enigma- very good squad poorly motivated and managed

Question, do the Sharks have a better squad than Ulster? I'm saying yes.

Munster certainly have a better squad than ourselves, who else ? Bulls, Stormers and Glasgow?

Where are we in terms of squad strength against the other URC teams?

I’m not sure I’d agree that Munster have better squad strength than us. In terms of front row I’d prefer our depth at both hooker and tight head (will take a hit if JTA doesn’t stay as suggested by others on here). There is an argument they are stronger at loose head but it’s not massively stronger in my opinion in that Sutherland/Kitshoff for next season, Warwick and O’Sullivan overall isn’t a great drop from Kilcoyne, Loughman and Wycherley who I think would be the equivalent Munster choices.

Second row and back row I’d definitely have Munster ahead although hopefully the gap in the back grow can close with McCann starting to show form and Sheridan also looking good. In the case of the second row I’d have Munster some distance ahead with Snyman, Beirne and Kleyn a really good trio and Ahern/Edogbo looking good prospects.

While Munster have two players preferred in the international set up at 9 I don’t think there is a gulf in quality there and Shanahan isn’t a bad third choice. 10 definitely advantage Munster although that depth will take a hit with Healy leaving. The rest of the back line in both quality and depth (with possible exception of full back where Ulster are lacking depth in the absence of Addison) I’d have Ulster as stronger.

The above is caveated by saying I’m not saying our strength is brilliant, just that I don’t think the strength in Munster is any better.

[CIMANFOREVER]

Or the fact we have a more settled squad with fewer international call ups and depth of similar quality to cover?
Take out the Leinster galacticos, we would have more regular internationals and maybe negative impact. Cooney (!) McCloskey, maybe Hume, RB, Stockers with renewed form, Herring, Stewart, Hendo, Treadwell, Timoney, Moore, TOT. These guys are capable of playing international rugby regularly to a greater or lesser extent- they're behind many world class players at Leirland. We also have DV, Carter, JTA, Sutherland- experienced internationals. We also await Addison who is a game changer. ( but not considered here due to length of absence)

Munter have no similar depth- Coombes, POM, 2 v good Saffer locks , few good young back rowers, but front row depth is non existent til Ryan returns, no hookers, backs especially midfield depth are pish. Joeys bust sadly. No way our squads weaker- I do think Rowntree is a good fit for them and they have a strong backs to the wall in adversity identity that can get them so far. New signings will improve them further.
Edinburgh, Sharks Bulls, poorer than the sum of their parts for the reasons above and drop off in depth - Stormers/ Weegies similar to us- we have Kitshoff and Ewers next year ( but minus JTA Sutherland, Carter, DV). Dobson for Stormers and Weegies are well coached hence why we form the top 4.
I think Payne and Peel could've made a significant difference, but bear in mind we've had 3 good young forwards come through at once, plus 2 international props fall into our laps unexpectedly to add depth.
So I come back to coaching team is not as strong as eg Weegies and Stormers, but our squad is. Grant I agree has made a difference, but he has had the luck mentioned above with that 5 in the squad.

[Dave]

We have the best backline in Europe.

[CIMANFOREVER]

When's Darren Cave and Paddy Wallace fit again?

[UlsterNo9]

So..... peas and carrots on the block in terms of squad strength, where are we in the URC?

Ranking ourselves, Leinster, Munster, Connacht, Sharks, Bulls, Stormers, Glasgow, Edinburgh.......

1. Leinster

[CIMANFOREVER]

Between 2 and 4 depending on squad availability for Ourselves, Stormers and Weegies. Interchangeable- home advantage also significant. Weegies no2 ATM imo- pity they will face Leireland away in all likelihood and may be focussed on Toulon ( whom I think they will beat.) Weegies have been the stealth team.

[Dave]

SA sides clearly have great squads but many are underperforming. It's difficult to measure against them as they underperform. Therefore if Team A is outperforming a vastly underperforming Team B, it does not mean that Team A is not underperforming itself. Just less badly. For the record I think we are doing great. I welcome a defeat to Connacht as it will temper expectations going forward.

[CIMANFOREVER]

SA sides clearly have great squads but many are underperforming. It's difficult to measure against them as they underperform. Therefore if Team A is outperforming a vastly underperforming Team B, it does not mean that Team A is not underperforming itself. Just less badly. For the record I think we are doing great. I welcome a defeat to Connacht as it will temper expectations going forward.

Dave this is an excellent and prescient debate. I think the 2-4, maybe even 2-6 is interchangeable atm. We should expect to be top 4 currently. SA have more geographical disadvantages, complicated by Europe also. Apart from Leinster, it will also be cyclical as squads change. ( eventually Leireland too). Loss to Connacht should be unacceptable for this squad and management team, otherwise we have regressed, and coaching team should be called to account. Home defeat to most likely Stormers marginally less so, dependent on the context and margin ie red card etc.. Regardless, anything less than a final is not progress, as this squad depth is the strongest of McFarlands tenure. No more by balls.

[Neill_M]

John Andrew with ankle injury v Munster A, joins the injury list.

Addison (Lower Leg), Henderson (forearm), Matty Rea and Reffell (ankle), Moore (knee) and TOT (calf).